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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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894 FXUS61 KBTV 161409 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm conditions and hazy skies will continue today under an upper level ridge. Chances of rain showers late tonight into tomorrow increase, especially in western portions of northern New York. More active weather is expected early next week, peaking on Monday when rainfall looks most widespread. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1005 AM EDT Friday...Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast; fog is finally dispersing likely lingering due to increased air particulates from smoke. Temperatures are slowly warming which is allow for smoke to mix more vertically with some minor improvements evident in air quality. Still, AQI values are in the moderate category, so those unusually susceptible to degraded air quality may want to limit exposure. Previous Discussion... Typical summertime weather is expected today with temperatures warming into the 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Upper air analysis shows a large upper level ridge over western portions of Quebec, which is driving a persistent northerly flow on its eastern flank across our region. This scenario is a continuation of what we`ve seen in recent days which has led to increasing haze from wildfire smoke making the trek from the Canadian Prairies. However, at the surface, subtle pressure falls associated with a slow moving and broad low pressure area in the western Great Lakes will help our winds gradually pick up out of the south, especially tonight. So the haziness may tend to decrease. At the same time, given trends towards mainly dry weather for tomorrow, some fine particles could be trapped under an inversion through this period given the mid level warming and lack of rainfall. Said rainfall chances today still look to be tied to the high terrain given lack of trigger for convection. The isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to be run of the mill with regards to hazards, and cloud layer flow will probably push them slowly eastward amidst a low shear environment. Instability looks only moderate, limiting the potential intensity of cells, especially as they move off the mountains; the HREF interquartile range of surface- based CAPE peaks in the 300 to 1200 J/kg during the afternoon. For tonight into Saturday, shower chances will be tied to the progression of the aforementioned low pressure area as it ambles to the east. Distinctly greater rainfall chances and amounts are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley where forcing for upward motion and moisture will be favorable for rounds of showers, which could be heavy at times. Farther east it will become more of a struggle to see rain. Model guidance continues to show bands of showers working eastward late tonight through tomorrow following surges of mid-level theta-e advection, but we`re expecting little if any measurable rainfall. Low level easterly trajectories, especially east of the Adirondacks, will limit heating and moisture at the surface, and warm air aloft will also work against convection such that rain will sputter out as it progresses to the east. The trend towards dry weather coincides with slightly warmer high temperatures than previous forecasts, although there is a bit more spread in possible highs than typical for a day 2 forecast. It will also be increasingly breezy, with a modest pressure gradient developing. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH range will be common in the broad valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will featured continued scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms as vertically stacked low pressure system continues to very slowly approach from the Great Lakes. Saturday night should mainly be dry and muggy with southerly flow and cloudy skies. Low temperatures will range through the 60s. Will have an increase in showers across our area on Sunday, though coverage will continue to be pretty scattered. We will remain under southwesterly flow as trough axis still will not reach our area by the end of the day Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Surface and upper level troughs will finally cross our area on Monday. Best chance for widespread precipitation will be on Monday, though once the trough finally gets here it should push west to east across our area at a reasonable speed. Right now looks like storm total precipitation will range from about three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter. We could see higher amounts in any thunderstorms that develop Monday afternoon. Temperatures will not be overly warm on Monday with precipitation and cloudy skies, highs generally in the upper 60s to upper 70s, coolest in the St Lawrence valley where the cold frontal passage occurs earliest. Will continue to monitor for potential for heavy rain on Monday, at this time looks like PWATs will top out around 1.75". NAM model continues to hint at potential for PWATs to reach around 2". Drier conditions are then expected from Tuesday through most of the week as surface and upper level ridging will build over our area. Tuesday will be cool behind departing cold front, but then we will have a gradual warming trend with temperatures returning to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Areas of dense fog may linger through the very beginning of the period, especially at MPV. Wildfire smoke aloft continues with no significant visibility restrictions. Otherwise, light southerly flow will result in a mix of calm winds and 4 to 8 knot winds through the period. Very isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today, rain chances overnight now look delayed even at westernmost terminals, so no mention of VCSH for now. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kutikoff