894
FXUS61 KBTV 161409
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm conditions and hazy skies will continue today under
an upper level ridge. Chances of rain showers late tonight into
tomorrow increase, especially in western portions of northern New
York. More active weather is expected early next week, peaking on
Monday when rainfall looks most widespread.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1005 AM EDT Friday...Only minor adjustments were made to
the ongoing forecast; fog is finally dispersing likely lingering
due to increased air particulates from smoke. Temperatures are
slowly warming which is allow for smoke to mix more vertically
with some minor improvements evident in air quality. Still, AQI
values are in the moderate category, so those unusually
susceptible to degraded air quality may want to limit exposure.


Previous Discussion... Typical summertime weather is expected
today with temperatures warming into the 80s and dew points in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Upper air analysis shows a large upper
level ridge over western portions of Quebec, which is driving a
persistent northerly flow on its eastern flank across our
region. This scenario is a continuation of what we`ve seen in
recent days which has led to increasing haze from wildfire smoke
making the trek from the Canadian Prairies. However, at the
surface, subtle pressure falls associated with a slow moving and
broad low pressure area in the western Great Lakes will help
our winds gradually pick up out of the south, especially
tonight. So the haziness may tend to decrease. At the same time,
given trends towards mainly dry weather for tomorrow, some fine
particles could be trapped under an inversion through this
period given the mid level warming and lack of rainfall.

Said rainfall chances today still look to be tied to the high
terrain given lack of trigger for convection. The isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms look to be run of the mill with regards to
hazards, and cloud layer flow will probably push them slowly
eastward amidst a low shear environment. Instability looks only
moderate, limiting the potential intensity of cells, especially as
they move off the mountains; the HREF interquartile range of surface-
based CAPE peaks in the 300 to 1200 J/kg during the afternoon. For
tonight into Saturday, shower chances will be tied to the
progression of the aforementioned low pressure area as it ambles to
the east. Distinctly greater rainfall chances and amounts are
expected in the St. Lawrence Valley where forcing for upward motion
and moisture will be favorable for rounds of showers, which could be
heavy at times. Farther east it will become more of a struggle to
see rain. Model guidance continues to show bands of showers working
eastward late tonight through tomorrow following surges of mid-level
theta-e advection, but we`re expecting little if any measurable
rainfall. Low level easterly trajectories, especially east of the
Adirondacks, will limit heating and moisture at the surface, and
warm air aloft will also work against convection such that rain will
sputter out as it progresses to the east. The trend towards dry
weather coincides with slightly warmer high temperatures than
previous forecasts, although there is a bit more spread in possible
highs than typical for a day 2 forecast. It will also be
increasingly breezy, with a modest pressure gradient developing.
Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH range will be common in the broad
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will featured
continued scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms as
vertically stacked low pressure system continues to very slowly
approach from the Great Lakes. Saturday night should mainly be dry
and muggy with southerly flow and cloudy skies. Low temperatures
will range through the 60s. Will have an increase in showers across
our area on Sunday, though coverage will continue to be pretty
scattered. We will remain under southwesterly flow as trough axis
still will not reach our area by the end of the day Sunday. High
temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Surface and upper level troughs will
finally cross our area on Monday. Best chance for widespread
precipitation will be on Monday, though once the trough finally gets
here it should push west to east across our area at a reasonable
speed. Right now looks like storm total precipitation will range
from about three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter. We
could see higher amounts in any thunderstorms that develop Monday
afternoon. Temperatures will not be overly warm on Monday with
precipitation and cloudy skies, highs generally in the upper 60s to
upper 70s, coolest in the St Lawrence valley where the cold frontal
passage occurs earliest. Will continue to monitor for potential for
heavy rain on Monday, at this time looks like PWATs will top out
around 1.75". NAM model continues to hint at potential for PWATs to
reach around 2". Drier conditions are then expected from Tuesday
through most of the week as surface and upper level ridging will
build over our area. Tuesday will be cool behind departing cold
front, but then we will have a gradual warming trend with
temperatures returning to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Areas of dense fog may linger through the
very beginning of the period, especially at MPV. Wildfire smoke
aloft continues with no significant visibility restrictions.
Otherwise, light southerly flow will result in a mix of calm
winds and 4 to 8 knot winds through the period. Very isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected today, rain chances
overnight now look delayed even at westernmost terminals, so no
mention of VCSH for now.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff