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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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065 FXUS61 KBTV 111857 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 257 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages. Conditions become drier Tuesday through mid week as temperatures rise to around seasonal averages. A few scattered showers will be possible late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...An upper level circulation is tracking along southern Canada and the North Country bringing scattered for valleys with more numerous showers for higher terrain. The cold core of the low is providing for steep lapse rates support some convective elements with mainly isolated thunderstorms mixed in through tonight. With flow turning west/northwesterly some upslope showers will likely continue especially in the northern Green Mountains. Temperatures will remain cool through tonight with lows generally in the 50s. Temperatures are expected to rebound Monday as skies clear out allowing for more sunshine; highs will generally be in the 70s. Another night of lows generally in the 50s tomorrow night with drier air cutting off northwesterly flow showers. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM EDT Sunday...Any lingering showers wl quickly dissipate on Monday evening with building sfc high pres from the central Great Lakes. Areas of patchy fog are possible, especially with any location that receives precip on Monday aftn, with greatest potential in deeper protected valleys. Little change is anticipated on Tues with slightly less moisture/instability but still nw flow aloft. Cannot completely rule out a pop up shower acrs the trrn, but given deep layer moisture in place and limited instability areal coverage wl be <10%. Progged 925mb temps are similar to previous couple of days with values btwn 18-19C, supporting highs mid 70s to lower 80s most locations. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s with comfortable humidity values, very typical for mid August acrs our cwa. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Sunday...Long wave pattern continues to support cyclonic northwest flow aloft acrs our cwa associated with mid/upper lvl trof over northern Maine/eastern Canada. This wl result in near normal temps and a 25- 35% probability of showers during the aftn hours on Weds/Thurs. Have noted both the GFS/ECWMF indicate the greatest instability and slightly better mid lvl moisture associated with s/w energy in the flow aloft is on Thurs aftn. However, lift and moisture is minimal and feel as event becomes closer pops wl be reduced. NBM shows likely pops for Thurs and this seems too high based on available moisture and instability, but we wl continue to monitor latest trends. By late week into next weekend timing/magnitude of next mid/upper lvl trof approaching our cwa is poorly modeled attm. Have continued with some chc pops for now as uncertainty in timing and amplification varies from one run to another with a large spread noted btwn different pieces of guidance and their associated ensemble members. Temps generally near normal for both highs and lows with daily readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows mid 50s to l/m 60s. No impactful or significant weather is anticipated in the next 5 to 7 days, along with no widespread heat and humidity. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday... A mix of VFR/MVFR should be expected with scattered rain showers ongoing. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm with these showers given steep lapse rates. Tonight best chances of IFR will be at SLK/MPV especially if a shower moves over the terminal. Elsewhere, showers will become increasingly isolated, so a mix of VFR/MVFR is anticipated. More showers are possible Monday with a similar setup with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Boyd