065
FXUS61 KBTV 111857
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
257 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures
running a below seasonal averages. Conditions become drier
Tuesday through mid week as temperatures rise to around
seasonal averages. A few scattered showers will be possible late
this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...An upper level circulation is tracking
along southern Canada and the North Country bringing scattered
for valleys with more numerous showers for higher terrain. The
cold core of the low is providing for steep lapse rates support
some convective elements with mainly isolated thunderstorms
mixed in through tonight. With flow turning west/northwesterly
some upslope showers will likely continue especially in the
northern Green Mountains. Temperatures will remain cool through
tonight with lows generally in the 50s. Temperatures are
expected to rebound Monday as skies clear out allowing for more
sunshine; highs will generally be in the 70s. Another night of
lows generally in the 50s tomorrow night with drier air cutting
off northwesterly flow showers.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 AM EDT Sunday...Any lingering showers wl quickly dissipate
on Monday evening with building sfc high pres from the central Great
Lakes. Areas of patchy fog are possible, especially with any
location that receives precip on Monday aftn, with greatest
potential in deeper protected valleys. Little change is anticipated
on Tues with slightly less moisture/instability but still nw flow
aloft. Cannot completely rule out a pop up shower acrs the trrn, but
given deep layer moisture in place and limited instability areal
coverage wl be <10%. Progged 925mb temps are similar to previous
couple of days with values btwn 18-19C, supporting highs mid 70s to
lower 80s most locations. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s
with comfortable humidity values, very typical for mid August acrs
our cwa.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Sunday...Long wave pattern continues to support
cyclonic northwest flow aloft acrs our cwa associated with mid/upper
lvl trof over northern Maine/eastern Canada. This wl result in near
normal temps and a 25- 35% probability of showers during the aftn
hours on Weds/Thurs. Have noted both the GFS/ECWMF indicate the
greatest instability and slightly better mid lvl moisture associated
with s/w energy in the flow aloft is on Thurs aftn. However, lift
and moisture is minimal and feel as event becomes closer pops wl be
reduced. NBM shows likely pops for Thurs and this seems too high
based on available moisture and instability, but we wl continue to
monitor latest trends. By late week into next weekend
timing/magnitude of next mid/upper lvl trof approaching our cwa is
poorly modeled attm. Have continued with some chc pops for now as
uncertainty in timing and amplification varies from one run to
another with a large spread noted btwn different pieces of guidance
and their associated ensemble members. Temps generally near normal
for both highs and lows with daily readings in the mid 70s to lower
80s and lows mid 50s to l/m 60s. No impactful or significant weather
is anticipated in the next 5 to 7 days, along with no widespread
heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday... A mix of VFR/MVFR should be expected with
scattered rain showers ongoing. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with these showers given steep lapse rates. Tonight
best chances of IFR will be at SLK/MPV especially if a shower
moves over the terminal. Elsewhere, showers will become
increasingly isolated, so a mix of VFR/MVFR is anticipated.
More showers are possible Monday with a similar setup with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Boyd