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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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735 FXUS61 KBTV 120438 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1238 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages. Conditions become drier Tuesday through mid week as temperatures rise to around seasonal averages. A few scattered showers will be possible late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1235 AM EDT Monday...The showers have been decreasing in coverage and intensity and that trend should continue for the rest of the night. By morning, the region should be mostly dry. There has been more clearing than expected, particularly over Vermont, so lowered sky cover to match observations. The areas that have cleared out should generally remain cloud-free for the rest of the night. Previous Discussion...An upper level circulation is tracking along southern Canada and the North Country bringing scattered for valleys with more numerous showers for higher terrain. The cold core of the low is providing for steep lapse rates support some convective elements with mainly isolated thunderstorms mixed in through tonight. With flow turning west/northwesterly some upslope showers will likely continue especially in the northern Green Mountains. Temperatures will remain cool through tonight with lows generally in the 50s. Temperatures are expected to rebound Monday as skies clear out allowing for more sunshine; highs will generally be in the 70s. Another night of lows generally in the 50s tomorrow night with drier air cutting off northwesterly flow showers. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 406 PM EDT Sunday...A mid to upper level shortwave will cross the forecast area Tuesday, allowing for a pop up shower across the terrain (10-20% chance), but for the most part we are anticipating dry conditions with perhaps some fair weather cumulus across the forecast area as high pressure noses in from the Great Lakes. Temperatures at the 925mb temperatures will be in the 15 to 19 degree C range, and there will be a north/northwesterly flow throughout the day, resulting in seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s, with warmest conditions centering around the wider valleys (St. Lawrence, Champlain, and Connecticut River valleys primarily). Tuesday night, pressure will increase across the forecast area, and lows will also be fairly seasonable in the 50s and lower 60s. There may be some patchy fog developing in the typical valley spots, depending on how clear skies become as well as how much winds diminish. Otherwise, quiet night overall. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 406 PM EDT Sunday...Our area will be stuck between upper level cyclonic rotation to the east and ridging to the west. Chances of showers will persist each afternoon through the end of the week. Shower chances will be 10-30% Wednesday and Friday with the main focus on terrain and the Northeast Kingdom. A particularly potent shortwave will slide south through the region on Thursday, so showers and thunderstorms are most likely Thursday afternoon (20-50% chance of precip) thanks to the additional forcing. There remains quite a bit of discrepancy for the weekend weather as models have different ideas of the timing of our next low pressure system, so we have continued with chance PoPs. Temperatures for the long term period will be seasonable in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and mid 50s to mid 60s for lows. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday... A mix of VFR/MVFR should be expected with scattered rain showers ongoing. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm with these showers given steep lapse rates. Tonight best chances of IFR will be at SLK/MPV especially if a shower moves over the terminal. Elsewhere, showers will become increasingly isolated, so a mix of VFR/MVFR is anticipated. More showers are possible Monday with a similar setup with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Boyd