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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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272 FXUS61 KBTV 170212 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1012 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hazy conditions will persist through this evening as we continue to remain under the influence of wildfire smoke. Rain chances will increase late tonight across the St Lawrence Valley, spreading eastward into the daylight hours Saturday as an upper level trough slowly crosses the Great Lakes. Unsettled weather is expected through early next week as the trough moves eastward, peaking on Monday. Temperatures will be seasonable through the weekend, though conditions will be a bit on the muggy side. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1009 PM EDT Friday...Late evening update to sky cover only as high clouds are advancing slightly faster from the west than previously anticipated, and low clouds from onshore flow have begun to develop across the lower CT River Valley. These low clouds should push northward up the valley through the night, along with some dense valley fog. Lows remain on track to very very mild for mid-August in the low/mid 60s. For Saturday...a slow-moving upper trough will trundle eastward across the Great Lakes, spreading showers/isolated thunderstorms into northern NY during the morning hours. Brief heavy downpours will be possible given increasing PWATs to around 1.75 inch and deep warm cloud depths, but with convection limited by poor lapse rates aloft, flooding is not anticipated. Forcing will be lacking as one heads eastward into the Champlain Valley and eastern VT, so showers will wane as they exit northern NY, though can`t totally rule out a stray shower making into VT. Increasing clouds will keep temperatures a littler cooler than today, especially in northern NY where highs will struggle to hit 80F. Further east, low to mid 80s should be more common. South/southwest winds will become a little gusty during the afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 mph possible. Showers look to become a little more widespread, or at least make it further east, Saturday night as weak shortwaves rotate around the eastward-advancing upper trough. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but as mentioned above, instability will be lacking with warm air aloft. Still, can`t rule out a few heavy rainers, but with showers to remain scattered in nature, no flooding is anticipated. Saturday night lows will be similar to tonight, in the 60s in most spots. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday...A slow-moving trough moves into the region for Sunday and Monday, producing widespread showers. The bulk of the rain on Sunday looks to fall over northern New York before spreading into the rest of the region for Monday. The steadiest rain will fall on Monday when a linear feature attempts to develop on a passing cold-front. Before the frontal passage, the rain will be more showery, but the ingredients will be in place for heavy rain. PWATs should be above 1.5 inches, and they will be approaching 2 inches in some places. There will also be deep warm-cloud depths and the potential for training storms. The large-scale trough will have very little forward west to east motion so any north-south oriented prefrontal trough to focus the shower development will be very slow- moving. Even though the showers look to move with relatively fast south to north motion, with a slow moving pre-frontal trough, there is the potential for areas to see multiple heavy showers or training showers. Combined with the atmospheric conditions favoring heavy rainfall, isolated flash flooding is possible. Weak instability should limit the heavy rain threat a bit though. The cold front that passes through on Monday will end any threat for heavy rainfall. The front will also be quite strong, sending temperatures into the upper 40s and 50s Monday night. Before the frontal passage, it will be warm and humid with temperatures in the 60s-70s and dew points in the 60s. Winds will be relatively strong on Sunday, particularly in the Champlain Valley due to channeled flow. Gusts between 20-25 KTs are possible though some areas could see them locally higher. There will be a low-level jet between 30-35 Kts down to 2,000 FT and the scattered nature of the showers should allow dry periods and decent mixing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will build into the region for mid and late week, leading to mostly dry conditions and a warming trend. However, temperatures will start off below climatological normals and will only rise to around seasonable averages, so it will almost have an early fall-like feel! Some model guidance, including the operational Euro, try to form a cut-off low just off the New England Coast on Tuesday-Thursday, and this could bring showers into eastern areas. However, this is only supported by a small number of ensembles so this time period still looks to be mostly dry. Overall, the pattern mid-late week will favor extensive ridging over the Great Plains in an almost Omega Block type pattern. This will keep any of the heat and humidity away to our west and south. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period with SKC-FEW250 this evening through midnight trending to SCT-BKN250 early Saturday morning before lowering to around 10kft in the afternoon. Showers along a warm front will affect KMSS and potentially KSLK from 12-18Z, with more limited coverage eastward, and could reduce vsby to 4-5SM. Otherwise, winds will generally be light and variable this evening, but increase from the SSE after midnight, especially at KBTV where gusts up to 18kts are possible before sunrise. Thereafter, SSE winds of 4-8kts will prevail through the day with gusts up to 20kts likely at KBTV, and up to 16kts elsewhere. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Lahiff