899
FXUS61 KBTV 121940
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to bring scattered showers and
cooler temperatures to the region this afternoon. Seasonable
temperatures and pleasant weather is expected tomorrow under
building high pressure, before unsettled conditions return. Cooler
temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week, become more
seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Another afternoon of scattered showers will
continue as the region remain on the periphery of an upper level
trough that continues to push eastward. These showers will taper off
as we head into the evening with the loss of diurnal instability,
with mostly dry conditions overnight. Temperatures overnight will be
a touch on the cool side, in the upper 40s to near 60. With the
recent rainfall, some patchy fog may be possible, although there may
be enough cloud and wind aloft to limit development.

A brief break in the unsettled weather is expected for Tuesday, with
surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes pushing
eastward. This high pressure will bring drier conditions and mostly
sunny skies, making for a pleasant day with some light northwesterly
winds. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out, especially
across the higher terrain, but limited moisture and mid-level dry
air will inhibit any development and rainfall reaching the ground.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, with
highs in the 70s, with the broad valleys reaching around 80. As the
high pressure continues to build in, fog development looks more
favorable tomorrow night , due to light and variable winds and
mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be seasonable, generally in
the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...The upper level pattern is expected to
stall somewhat Wednesday with a shortwave trough round around an
upper circulation over Maine back into Vermont. Given temperatures
warming to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, there will be some
surface instability to work with coincident with this trough
rotating over the North Country. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase for Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Given lower
wet bulb zero heights, could see some small hail. Shower chances
diminish overnight as the trough rotates out of Vermont with lows
ranging mainly from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Ridging will be slow to progress eastward
Thursday with some continued shower chances as heating increases;
it`s reasonable that thunderstorms could develop with highs back
into the upper 70s to lower 80s, but chances will diminish west to
east late in the day as warming aloft increases with the sluggish
eastward movement of the upper ridge working itself into the North
Country.

Models favor the ridge axis over the North Country by Friday with
drier conditions, but warmer temperatures with 925-850mb
temperatures warming. Highs will likely range from the upper 70s to
mid 80s as surface flow turns southerly. Models agree on an
approaching potent trough over the weekend, but differ on timing and
on whether on not it will push through the North Country. Still,
it`s proximity and potential for becoming negatively tilted could
favor some stronger convection as gradients tighten. Breezes are
likely to increase over the weekend under this synoptic pattern with
gusts to 20 mph common and up to 30 mph possible for channeled
locations like the northern Champlain Valleys. With model
disagreement on extend of eastward progress, opted to differ from
NBM output which highly favors predominance of showers Saturday
through Monday; kept scattered chances until models coalesce towards
to solution. Either way, temperatures will likely cool with the
proximity of another cut off low and potential for rain showers with
highs projected in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. .

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals, with some scattered showers beginning to pop-up this
afternoon. Although VFR is expected over most of the forecast
period, brief reductions to MVFR or even IFR visibilities is
possible within heavier rain showers. Winds have slowly sifted
to become more northwesterly, generally 10 knots or less, and
are expected to become light and terrain-driven after sunset.
Some fog development is possible at the more favored terminals,
like KSLK and KMPV, but there is still uncertainty at this
time.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer