


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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069 FXUS61 KBTV 281423 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Several rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day today. A cold front will swing through the region this afternoon and evening which will bring an end to our rain chances with increasing sunshine and seasonal weather expected on Sunday. A significant warm up is expected Monday as highs climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s but these temperatures will be short- lived as another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday. Several round of rain and thunderstorms will be possible late Monday and again on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1018 AM EDT Saturday...Breezy conditions continue while showers stream through the northern half of our forecast area. Most showers have been light to moderate, but there is one thunderstorm with heavy rainfall shifting east-northeast from Plattsburgh towards St. Albans right now. Coverage of showers will wane as this surge of moisture pulls away as warmer air associated with a frontal boundary translates northeast. All is on track for a cold front with the potential for a late convective show around 5 PM to 9 PM. However, much of the region appears likely to be capped. However, there will be some dynamics. Mostly garden variety storms will be possible, but we will still keep a close eye on activity in southern Vermont. Excerpt of previous discussion...The latest surface analysis shows that the main warm front remains south of the region and will continue to lift north as we head into the afternoon hours before a cold front sweeps through the region. The latest guidance shows this warm front lifting as far north as Addison and Orange counties before the cold front overtakes it by mid- afternoon. A narrow warm sector will develop across the southern half of Vermont and maybe into the northern Adirondacks depending on frontal timing which may give way to a few stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Any thunderstorms this afternoon will be heavy rainers as they will be in an environment highlighted by high PWATs and deep warm cloud depths but the progressive nature of the cold front will quickly push storms eastward with little to no chances of training thunderstorms. An abrupt end to rainfall is expected this evening behind the cold front. Given the latest guidance, rainfall amounts have been lowered further which continues to diminish any flood threat across the region. Sunday will be a much nicer day across the region as surface high pressure build across the Northeast with some minor mid-level height rises. It`ll likely take some time to scour out the low level moisture Sunday morning so we`ll start off cloudy but we shouldn`t have any problems breaking out into sunshine Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be around seasonal normals with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with comfortable dewpoints and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...We are looking at a pretty quiet period of weather overall Sunday night into Monday with the main focus being the above normal temperatures expected on Monday. The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the wider valleys across the North Country will easily climb into the lower 90s with other locations warming into the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices don`t look all that impressive given dewpoints in the lower 60s so we likely won`t need any heat headlines. Nevertheless, it`s always good to take precautions when it`ll be as warm as forecasted by taking breaks and drinking plenty of fluids. Rain chances will increase after sunset on Monday but that will be discussed in the section below. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 957 PM EDT Friday...Models in good agreement that a warm and humid night will follow Monday`s hot daytime temperatures. Low-level winds will remain out of the south Monday night in advance of robust shortwave expected to be translating ewd across the central Great Lakes. This should allow for overnight lows near 70F in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and generally mid-upper 60s elsewhere across the North Country. It appears that 700-500mb height falls and onset of cyclonic mid- level flow will occur between 06-12Z Tuesday, and therefore kept the idea of scattered to numerous showers across the region toward daybreak. During the daylight hours Tuesday, may see an early round of shower activity followed by additional showers and thunderstorms as mid-level trough and associated cold front cross the region from W-E during Tuesday afternoon. Included a chance of thunderstorms, with highest chances in the afternoon/early evening time frame on Tuesday. Should see PBL dewpoints climb to the upper 60s to lower 70s in advance of approaching cold front, and stuck with these values shown in latest NBM. If some breaks of sun occur between the two rounds of precipitation, expect to see max temperatures in the mid- upper 80s. Will need to watch for potential strong to locally severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, as sfc-6km shear is potentially 35-40kt with moderately strong forcing and potential for moderate SBCAPE. Will also need to watch for locally heavy rainfall, with latest GFS indicating high PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front, temperatures will gradually settle back closer to seasonal norms for early July with lower chances for diurnally driven shower activity. Highs generally lower 80s in valley locations Wednesday and Thursday, with more modest dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. A northern stream trough and secondary cold front may shift through our region Thursday and Thursday night, allowing for cooler Independence Day conditions with highs in the mid-upper 70s based on current indications. Chances for showers Thursday and Friday currently around 30 percent. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions to start the period with the exception at KSLK and KRUT which currently have MVFR ceilings. Rain showers will track across region over the next few hours with some heavier showers briefly reducing visibilities to MVFR. Winds will be the main terminal impact with south winds 10-15 knots and gusts to near 20 knots at all sites, with locally higher gusts at BTV/PBG of 35 knots. Winds will decrease after 00Z. LLWS is expected at all sites except KBTv through 15Z. Model guidance suggests ceilings will trend towards MVFR at all sites from rain showers with some guidance continuing to suggest near or at IFR ceilings below 1000 ft agl at MPV/EFK/SLK by 18Z. Given the time of year, confidence is low in achieving IFR ceilings, so continued trend of ceilings only to 1000-2000 ft agl for this afternoon. These low ceilings will be associated with periodic showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm, particularly between 16-21Z. Ceilings will improve towards VFR at MSS/SLK and then eastward beyond 22Z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain today. Winds have increased upwards of 25 to 35 knots and will continue through the morning and early afternoon hours, with even higher gusts possible. Waves are expected to build to 3 to 5 feet across the lake this morning. Winds across Lake Champlain will begin to abate this afternoon but will remain in the 15 to 25 knot range with 2-4 feet waves across the broad lake. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Verasamy MARINE...NWS BTV