181
FXUS61 KBTV 130228
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1028 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to bring scattered showers and
cooler temperatures to the region this afternoon. Seasonable
temperatures and pleasant weather is expected tomorrow under
building high pressure, before unsettled conditions return. Cooler
temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week, become more
seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1025 PM EDT Monday...Forecast remains very much on track.
Any lingering spot showers should wane in the next couple of
hours as we lose any remaining MLCAPE. Clouds have lingered
across much of the North Country this evening given the
anomalous -17C H5 cold pool aloft (5th percentile of SPC
sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site) and
6.5C/km mid- level lapse rates. Given the recent rainfall,
expect patchy fog to develop across the climatologically
favored locations during the latter half of the overnight hours.
Overall, quiet conditions prevail overnight tonight with a hint
of the changing seasons.

Previous discussion...Another afternoon of scattered showers
will continue as the region remain on the periphery of an upper
level trough that continues to push eastward. These showers will
taper off as we head into the evening with the loss of diurnal
instability, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Temperatures
overnight will be a touch on the cool side, in the upper 40s to
near 60. With the recent rainfall, some patchy fog may be
possible, although there may be enough cloud and wind aloft to
limit development.

A brief break in the unsettled weather is expected for Tuesday, with
surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes pushing
eastward. This high pressure will bring drier conditions and mostly
sunny skies, making for a pleasant day with some light northwesterly
winds. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out, especially
across the higher terrain, but limited moisture and mid-level dry
air will inhibit any development and rainfall reaching the ground.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, with
highs in the 70s, with the broad valleys reaching around 80. As the
high pressure continues to build in, fog development looks more
favorable tomorrow night , due to light and variable winds and
mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be seasonable, generally in
the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...The upper level pattern is expected to
stall somewhat Wednesday with a shortwave trough round around an
upper circulation over Maine back into Vermont. Given temperatures
warming to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, there will be some
surface instability to work with coincident with this trough
rotating over the North Country. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase for Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Given lower
wet bulb zero heights, could see some small hail. Shower chances
diminish overnight as the trough rotates out of Vermont with lows
ranging mainly from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Ridging will be slow to progress eastward
Thursday with some continued shower chances as heating increases;
it`s reasonable that thunderstorms could develop with highs back
into the upper 70s to lower 80s, but chances will diminish west to
east late in the day as warming aloft increases with the sluggish
eastward movement of the upper ridge working itself into the North
Country.

Models favor the ridge axis over the North Country by Friday with
drier conditions, but warmer temperatures with 925-850mb
temperatures warming. Highs will likely range from the upper 70s to
mid 80s as surface flow turns southerly. Models agree on an
approaching potent trough over the weekend, but differ on timing and
on whether on not it will push through the North Country. Still,
it`s proximity and potential for becoming negatively tilted could
favor some stronger convection as gradients tighten. Breezes are
likely to increase over the weekend under this synoptic pattern with
gusts to 20 mph common and up to 30 mph possible for channeled
locations like the northern Champlain Valleys. With model
disagreement on extend of eastward progress, opted to differ from
NBM output which highly favors predominance of showers Saturday
through Monday; kept scattered chances until models coalesce towards
to solution. Either way, temperatures will likely cool with the
proximity of another cut off low and potential for rain showers with
highs projected in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. .

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals, with some isolated to widely scattered showers
through early this evening. Visibility reductions are not
expected with these showers. Northwesterly winds at 5-10 kt are
expected to become light and terrain- driven this evening into
the overnight hours. Some fog development is possible at the
more favored terminals, such as KSLK and KMPV between 06z and
12z, but confidence is moderate due to boundary layer winds. All
terminals trend VFR after 12z and are expected to stay VFR with
northwest winds at 5-10 kt for the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Chai/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Chai