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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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181 FXUS61 KBTV 130228 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1028 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will continue to bring scattered showers and cooler temperatures to the region this afternoon. Seasonable temperatures and pleasant weather is expected tomorrow under building high pressure, before unsettled conditions return. Cooler temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week, become more seasonable. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1025 PM EDT Monday...Forecast remains very much on track. Any lingering spot showers should wane in the next couple of hours as we lose any remaining MLCAPE. Clouds have lingered across much of the North Country this evening given the anomalous -17C H5 cold pool aloft (5th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site) and 6.5C/km mid- level lapse rates. Given the recent rainfall, expect patchy fog to develop across the climatologically favored locations during the latter half of the overnight hours. Overall, quiet conditions prevail overnight tonight with a hint of the changing seasons. Previous discussion...Another afternoon of scattered showers will continue as the region remain on the periphery of an upper level trough that continues to push eastward. These showers will taper off as we head into the evening with the loss of diurnal instability, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Temperatures overnight will be a touch on the cool side, in the upper 40s to near 60. With the recent rainfall, some patchy fog may be possible, although there may be enough cloud and wind aloft to limit development. A brief break in the unsettled weather is expected for Tuesday, with surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes pushing eastward. This high pressure will bring drier conditions and mostly sunny skies, making for a pleasant day with some light northwesterly winds. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out, especially across the higher terrain, but limited moisture and mid-level dry air will inhibit any development and rainfall reaching the ground. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the 70s, with the broad valleys reaching around 80. As the high pressure continues to build in, fog development looks more favorable tomorrow night , due to light and variable winds and mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be seasonable, generally in the 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...The upper level pattern is expected to stall somewhat Wednesday with a shortwave trough round around an upper circulation over Maine back into Vermont. Given temperatures warming to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, there will be some surface instability to work with coincident with this trough rotating over the North Country. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Given lower wet bulb zero heights, could see some small hail. Shower chances diminish overnight as the trough rotates out of Vermont with lows ranging mainly from the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Ridging will be slow to progress eastward Thursday with some continued shower chances as heating increases; it`s reasonable that thunderstorms could develop with highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, but chances will diminish west to east late in the day as warming aloft increases with the sluggish eastward movement of the upper ridge working itself into the North Country. Models favor the ridge axis over the North Country by Friday with drier conditions, but warmer temperatures with 925-850mb temperatures warming. Highs will likely range from the upper 70s to mid 80s as surface flow turns southerly. Models agree on an approaching potent trough over the weekend, but differ on timing and on whether on not it will push through the North Country. Still, it`s proximity and potential for becoming negatively tilted could favor some stronger convection as gradients tighten. Breezes are likely to increase over the weekend under this synoptic pattern with gusts to 20 mph common and up to 30 mph possible for channeled locations like the northern Champlain Valleys. With model disagreement on extend of eastward progress, opted to differ from NBM output which highly favors predominance of showers Saturday through Monday; kept scattered chances until models coalesce towards to solution. Either way, temperatures will likely cool with the proximity of another cut off low and potential for rain showers with highs projected in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. . && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all terminals, with some isolated to widely scattered showers through early this evening. Visibility reductions are not expected with these showers. Northwesterly winds at 5-10 kt are expected to become light and terrain- driven this evening into the overnight hours. Some fog development is possible at the more favored terminals, such as KSLK and KMPV between 06z and 12z, but confidence is moderate due to boundary layer winds. All terminals trend VFR after 12z and are expected to stay VFR with northwest winds at 5-10 kt for the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Chai/Kremer SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Chai