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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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732 FXUS61 KBTV 170554 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 154 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hazy conditions will persist through this evening as we continue to remain under the influence of wildfire smoke. Rain chances will increase late tonight across the St Lawrence Valley, spreading eastward into the daylight hours Saturday as an upper level trough slowly crosses the Great Lakes. Unsettled weather is expected through early next week as the trough moves eastward, peaking on Monday. Temperatures will be seasonable through the weekend, though conditions will be a bit on the muggy side. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 154 AM EDT Saturday...Main change was to update sky cover. The terrain driven stratus being observed in eastern Vermont is very well modeled right now by the NAM 3km, so have heavily relied on its output to bring mostly/cloudy sky cover across much of this region. Otherwise, showers falling out of a mid- level cloud deck are quickly pushing into western St. Lawrence County. Very light rainfall is being observed upstream (such as 0.01" in Watertown, New York), so keeping PoPs in the chance category reflecting mainly trace amounts of rain looks reasonable through the overnight hours. Previous Discussion... For Saturday...a slow-moving upper trough will trundle eastward across the Great Lakes, spreading showers/isolated thunderstorms into northern NY during the morning hours. Brief heavy downpours will be possible given increasing PWATs to around 1.75 inch and deep warm cloud depths, but with convection limited by poor lapse rates aloft, flooding is not anticipated. Forcing will be lacking as one heads eastward into the Champlain Valley and eastern VT, so showers will wane as they exit northern NY, though can`t totally rule out a stray shower making into VT. Increasing clouds will keep temperatures a littler cooler than today, especially in northern NY where highs will struggle to hit 80F. Further east, low to mid 80s should be more common. South/southwest winds will become a little gusty during the afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 mph possible. Showers look to become a little more widespread, or at least make it further east, Saturday night as weak shortwaves rotate around the eastward-advancing upper trough. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but as mentioned above, instability will be lacking with warm air aloft. Still, can`t rule out a few heavy rainers, but with showers to remain scattered in nature, no flooding is anticipated. Saturday night lows will be similar to tonight, in the 60s in most spots. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday...A slow-moving trough moves into the region for Sunday and Monday, producing widespread showers. The bulk of the rain on Sunday looks to fall over northern New York before spreading into the rest of the region for Monday. The steadiest rain will fall on Monday when a linear feature attempts to develop on a passing cold-front. Before the frontal passage, the rain will be more showery, but the ingredients will be in place for heavy rain. PWATs should be above 1.5 inches, and they will be approaching 2 inches in some places. There will also be deep warm-cloud depths and the potential for training storms. The large-scale trough will have very little forward west to east motion so any north-south oriented prefrontal trough to focus the shower development will be very slow- moving. Even though the showers look to move with relatively fast south to north motion, with a slow moving pre-frontal trough, there is the potential for areas to see multiple heavy showers or training showers. Combined with the atmospheric conditions favoring heavy rainfall, isolated flash flooding is possible. Weak instability should limit the heavy rain threat a bit though. The cold front that passes through on Monday will end any threat for heavy rainfall. The front will also be quite strong, sending temperatures into the upper 40s and 50s Monday night. Before the frontal passage, it will be warm and humid with temperatures in the 60s-70s and dew points in the 60s. Winds will be relatively strong on Sunday, particularly in the Champlain Valley due to channeled flow. Gusts between 20-25 KTs are possible though some areas could see them locally higher. There will be a low-level jet between 30-35 Kts down to 2,000 FT and the scattered nature of the showers should allow dry periods and decent mixing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will build into the region for mid and late week, leading to mostly dry conditions and a warming trend. However, temperatures will start off below climatological normals and will only rise to around seasonable averages, so it will almost have an early fall-like feel! Some model guidance, including the operational Euro, try to form a cut-off low just off the New England Coast on Tuesday-Thursday, and this could bring showers into eastern areas. However, this is only supported by a small number of ensembles so this time period still looks to be mostly dry. Overall, the pattern mid-late week will favor extensive ridging over the Great Plains in an almost Omega Block type pattern. This will keep any of the heat and humidity away to our west and south. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions in much of the area will continue. The exception is in eastern Vermont where a shallow stratus deck has formed, impacting both EFK and MPV with MVFR ceilings. With steady southeast flow expected to continue, steady ceilings are anticipated through at least 12Z, then solar radiation will help scour out the low clouds in the subsequent hours. Meanwhile, showers along a warm front will affect KMSS and potentially KSLK from 12-18Z, with more limited coverage eastward. These showers could reduce vsby to 4-5SM. Winds will begin to increase from the SSE, especially at KBTV where gusts up to 18kts are possible before sunrise. Thereafter, SSE winds of 4-8kts will prevail through the day with gusts up to 20kts likely at KBTV, and up to 16kts elsewhere. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Kutikoff/Lahiff