983
FXUS61 KBTV 082327
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather has turned quiet for midweek with no widespread
precipitation and seasonable temperatures. Widespread showers
with some possible thunderstorms return on Thursday, while more
limited shower chances are expected for Friday and especially
Saturday followed by another round of organized showers and
thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will largely be
seasonably warm to hot through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 PM EDT Tuesday...A large ridge of high pressure
centered to our north will weaken through the period but will
be the main feature controlling our weather. Hence, quiet and
fairly comfortable conditions should continue with light winds
supporting reformation of low stratus tonight. However, with
some dry air advection from the north, much less coverage of
these low clouds and fog is expected. Most of the low cloudiness
will probably be near summit level and focused over
central/southern areas where low level moisture is expected to
remain relatively high compared to areas nearer the
International Border. The high pressure area will support plenty
of sunshine to start the day in most locations on Wednesday
after a cool start, we should warm up nicely. That being said,
expect quite a bit of cirrus to blanket the sky in northern
areas, associated with a vigorous upper level wave over the
Midwest as a high level moisture streams eastward out ahead of
the system.

A weak surface low may develop along a trough in central/eastern
Vermont during the afternoon. Surface convergence should
support some isolated convection near/east of the boundary,
which is why PoPs are markedly higher in far eastern Vermont,
especially from roughly Quechee to Vershire to St. Johnsbury and
all of Essex County. These showers, and possibly a thunderstorm
or two, will be pretty much garden variety/low impact with a
lot of dry air aloft and lack of vertical wind shear.
Instability, along with precipitation chances, will peak late in
the afternoon/early evening as temperatures reach into the 80s
with dew points in the 60s. However, there is pretty substantial
uncertainty in the magnitude of CAPE, which will limit
thunderstorm chances along with dry air aloft; HREF mean SB CAPE
is about 500 J/kg and the 90th percentile/reasonable highest
value is near 1000 J/kg.

For tomorrow night, as the aforementioned upper level wave
passes to over or just south of the area, increasing cloudiness
and some isolated showers could develop. Most unstable CAPE
will tend to increase overnight, especially in northern New
York, supporting non-zero chances of thunderstorms with any of
these showers. At the same time, the wave will help generate a
low pressure system to our south with potentially some more
widespread rain skirting southern/eastern portions of Vermont
overnight. Again, precipitation chances tend to increase towards
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 PM EDT Tuesday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to be the focus for Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC
convective outlook remains general thunderstorms, which seems
reasonable at this time. That being said, machine learning
convective hazard forecasts suggest at least a 15-30% chance of
severe weather in our region, with somewhat greater chances a
bit to our south. A northern stream trough will approach, but
not dig towards the area but retreat a bit towards the northeast
during the day, limited height falls. Another limited factor for
stronger convection will be an easterly low level wind component
in central and eastern Vermont. The temperature forecast
accordingly shows slightly lower temperatures and dew points in
this area (highs 75 to 80, dew points in the mid 60s), while
forcing for precipitation is better there than in western
areas that will probably have greater instability. Best overlap
of instability and forcing for ascent seems to be in western
Vermont, but stay tuned. Overall, it does not look like a high
impact event but this area may have sufficient CAPE and shear to
see some stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 302 PM EDT Tuesday...Generally looking at no significant
weather through this period, although localized impacts due to
thunderstorms are possible. Seasonably hot weather is also
expected, especially on Sunday when probabilities of heat index
values exceeding 95 peak. At this time, chances of reaching heat
advisory criteria are low (under 40% even in the warmest
spots). Best chances of organized, and possibly strong,
thunderstorms will also be on Sunday associated with a large
scale frontal passage. Most guidance shows only a minor air mass
change behind this system, so seasonable heat should persist
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A mix of VFR/MVFR will be the main rule
through the TAF period, with KEFK/KSLK to likely remain MVFR at
least overnight tonight. All other terminals should remain VFR,
except for KMPV. Model guidance continues to indicate IFR/LIFR
in stratus and/or fog late tonight into early Wednesday, roughly
09z-13z. Can`t totally rule out low ceilings/visibilities at
KSLK/KEFK/KRUT, but certainty is not enough to include mention
in the TAF at this time. Regardless, all terminals to be VFR
from 15z Wed onward. Winds will be light and mainly terrain
driven through the entire forecast period. .

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings