185
FXUS61 KBTV 132349
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will be observed heading into the later half of the
work week. A few pop up showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday and Thursday, which will mainly develop near terrain
features. Friday`s weather conditions are likely to be mostly dry,
followed by a large, slow moving weather disturbance from the west
late Friday night into the early part of next week. This will bring
higher regionwide rain chances back into the weather forecast with
humid nighttime conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 746 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains largely on track so
only made minor changes to bring it up to date with current obs.
Radar reflectivity and observation network show some isolated
showers with brief embedded lightning near Sherbrooke, Quebec.
RAP mesoanalysis shows an area of few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE
across far northern VT near the international border. However,
with plenty of dry air in place and sunset approaching, these
pop up should subside prior to reaching the Northeast Kingdom.
Otherwise, western wildfire aloft would also be advected
southward with the passing shortwave trough this evening, but
not before leaving a vibrant sunset.

Previous Discussion...Seasonable weather conditions prevail
today into tonight. The area of smoke should shift south this
evening. There`s some smoke upstream, but it appears likely to
stay away until perhaps Thursday. Our mid 70s and lower 80s will
quickly cool tonight underneath dry mid-level air and light
northerly flow. High pressure nosing in should help river valley
fog to develop as temperatures quickly cool into the upper 40s
to upper 50s, but staying near 60 around Lake Champlain. Enjoy
the great sleeping weather.

Wednesday will see some moisture south streaming off the Hudson Bay
into the region. With warmer temperatures ranging in the upper 70s
to mid 80s, this should be enough to spark a few showers and storms.
Mid-level dry air is going to take time to mix out. Coverage should
be fairly isolated, but scattered in more favorable areas like
the eastern foothills of the Adirondacks in Essex county, NY and
near the Passumpsic River. Activity will move north to south.
Despite the sunset, some showers may linger overnight while a
weak vort moves on the backside of that same upper low
responsible for showers on Sunday and Monday retrograding
towards Maine. Clouds and steady north winds will keep Wednesday
temperatures a bit warmer in the lower 50s to lower 60s for
most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Tuesday...With a closed upper level low pinwheeling
over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, scattered to numerous showers
are once again likely on Thursday as weak embedded shortwave energy
rounds the backside of the low. Latest CAMs continue to support the
idea of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well, but overall
surface based CAPE is only 500-1000 J/kg so the likelihood of
anything severe is low. Low levels will be rather dry though with
inverted-V forecast soundings noted, and progged DCAPE is around 500
J/kg so any stronger cores will have the potential to produce some
locally gusty winds.

Thursday night into Friday the upper low shifts east enough to allow
an upper level ridge over the eastern Great Lakes to nudge in, so
lingering showers Thursday evening will wane by midnight with a
quiet and seasonally warm day on Friday to end the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend and early next
week signals continue to point towards a period of unsettled weather
again as a slow moving upper trough takes residence over the
Northeast. Adding to the slow movement, and a fly in the ointment in
the forecast for sure is now Tropical Storm Ernesto which will be
east of the New England Coast by Sunday night. Friday night into
Saturday morning showers look to build into northern New York along
the leading edge of a 1.5" PWAT plume, and eventually works into
Vermont Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, guidance differs on whether
the upper low remains closed and where any shortwave energy will be
in time and place, as well as how much additional moisture Ernesto
will provide, if any. Overall though, there is a general consensus
that showers will continue across the region through the remainder
of the period, with a low/moderate threat for heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the first
half of the overnight hours. Winds become light and terrain
driven. Some fog will develop across the valleys, but some
competing factors should present it from being too widespread.
Have indicated 2-4SM visibility at KMPV and KSLK. After 12z,
northwest winds return at 5-10 knots. Isolated showers and
storms will develop towards 18z Wednesday, but appear unlikely
to impact any terminals at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Chai/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Chai