315
FXUS61 KBTV 140512
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
112 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will be observed heading into the later half of the
work week. A few pop up showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday and Thursday, which will mainly develop near terrain
features. Friday`s weather conditions are likely to be mostly dry,
followed by a large, slow moving weather disturbance from the west
late Friday night into the early part of next week. This will bring
higher regionwide rain chances back into the weather forecast with
humid nighttime conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 107 AM EDT Wednesday...Did tweak cloud cover as IR satl
imagery is showing some mid level clouds advecting into our cwa
on northerly flow aloft. Kept the mention of fog/br as low level
moisture and areas of fog have already developed in some of our
deeper river valleys as cross over values have been reached.
Temps cool into the upper 40s SLK to near 60F at BTV, all
covered well.

Previous Discussion...Seasonable weather conditions prevail
today into tonight. The area of smoke should shift south this
evening. There`s some smoke upstream, but it appears likely to
stay away until perhaps Thursday. Our mid 70s and lower 80s will
quickly cool tonight underneath dry mid-level air and light
northerly flow. High pressure nosing in should help river valley
fog to develop as temperatures quickly cool into the upper 40s
to upper 50s, but staying near 60 around Lake Champlain. Enjoy
the great sleeping weather.

Wednesday will see some moisture south streaming off the Hudson Bay
into the region. With warmer temperatures ranging in the upper 70s
to mid 80s, this should be enough to spark a few showers and storms.
Mid-level dry air is going to take time to mix out. Coverage should
be fairly isolated, but scattered in more favorable areas like
the eastern foothills of the Adirondacks in Essex county, NY and
near the Passumpsic River. Activity will move north to south.
Despite the sunset, some showers may linger overnight while a
weak vort moves on the backside of that same upper low
responsible for showers on Sunday and Monday retrograding
towards Maine. Clouds and steady north winds will keep Wednesday
temperatures a bit warmer in the lower 50s to lower 60s for
most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Tuesday...With a closed upper level low pinwheeling
over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, scattered to numerous showers
are once again likely on Thursday as weak embedded shortwave energy
rounds the backside of the low. Latest CAMs continue to support the
idea of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well, but overall
surface based CAPE is only 500-1000 J/kg so the likelihood of
anything severe is low. Low levels will be rather dry though with
inverted-V forecast soundings noted, and progged DCAPE is around 500
J/kg so any stronger cores will have the potential to produce some
locally gusty winds.

Thursday night into Friday the upper low shifts east enough to allow
an upper level ridge over the eastern Great Lakes to nudge in, so
lingering showers Thursday evening will wane by midnight with a
quiet and seasonally warm day on Friday to end the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend and early next
week signals continue to point towards a period of unsettled weather
again as a slow moving upper trough takes residence over the
Northeast. Adding to the slow movement, and a fly in the ointment in
the forecast for sure is now Tropical Storm Ernesto which will be
east of the New England Coast by Sunday night. Friday night into
Saturday morning showers look to build into northern New York along
the leading edge of a 1.5" PWAT plume, and eventually works into
Vermont Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, guidance differs on whether
the upper low remains closed and where any shortwave energy will be
in time and place, as well as how much additional moisture Ernesto
will provide, if any. Overall though, there is a general consensus
that showers will continue across the region through the remainder
of the period, with a low/moderate threat for heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Another very challenging aviation fcst in
regards to fog/br and associated IFR or lower potential this
morning. Crnt conditions show a range of mvfr/ifr at SLK to VFR
with some BR at MSS/MPV and EFK already with mid level clouds.
Temps have cooled to near cross over values before mid level
clouds arrived, some near saturated ground conditions are
occurring, but clouds and winds of 5 to 10 knots at 300-500 ft
agl makes for a challenging taf fcst. Thinking likely
probability of intervals of fog/br with IFR will occur at SLK
with 30-40% probability of IFR at MPV/EFK and <10% at other taf
sites thru 12z. Have utilized mostly tempo groups to cover IFR
potential btwn 07-11z this morning at SLK/MPV and EFK.
Otherwise, VFR conditions redevelop by 12z at all sites with
north/northwest winds 4 to 8 knots today.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Taber