099
FXUS61 KBTV 011126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout much of today as a series of fronts traverse the region.
Dry weather prevails through Wednesday before shower chances
increase later this week, with seasonable temperatures throughout the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this morning into the afternoon as a
series of fronts traverse across the region. Currently, a warm front
continues to push through, with areas of showers across the region
this morning with the cold front expected to arrive later this
afternoon. While several rounds of showers are expected, there is
still some uncertainty as to if skies will clear ahead of the cold
front and how much instability will be available later this
afternoon for convective development. A few SPC continues to
maintain a Marginal Risk of severe weather across southern portions
of the forecast area, with a few stronger storms possible.

Behind the cold front, cooler and drier conditions will filter into
the region as winds become more northwesterly. Overnight low
temperatures look to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
region, with portions of the broader valleys dropping into the mid
60s. The cooler and drier conditions will continue into Wednesday,
with a brief period of high pressure nosing into the region. High
temperatures Wednesday will warm into the 80s, with mostly sunny
skies expected by the afternoon making for a pleasant day across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will feature
some showers with possible thunderstorms as an upper level trough
crosses the area along with upper level shortwave energy as well.
Minimum temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s
Wednesday night followed by maximum temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to mid 80s on Thursday. Best chance for showers will be
during the day Thursday with best vorticity advection during that
time, and with daytime heating will have some modest instability and
have mention of thunderstorms as well. As upper level trough moves
into our area, a cold core aloft will be over head and this will not
be favorable for strong to severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night onwards will start out with
below normal temperatures, but trend back above normal Saturday
through Monday. Showers will diminish Thursday evening as the
shortwave passes to the east and we lose daytime heating. Surface
high pressure begins to build in on Friday and bring an end to the
rain chances. Dry weather should prevail through Saturday before
shower chances increase for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z WEDNESDAY...Variable flight conditions across the
region this morning as showers continue to move through this
morning. Flight conditions currently range anywhere from VFR to
IFR, with precipitation bringing brief periods of reduced
visibilities and some lower ceilings. These showers and possible
thunderstorms can be expected to continue for the next several
hours, with conditions expected to improve back towards VFR this
afternoon around 21Z or so once a cold front passes through and
drier conditions filter into the region with clouds become more
scattered overnight. Since conditions are variable within these
showers, a lot of PROB30 groups were utilized over the next
several hours. Southerly winds will become more westerly
throughout the TAF period, generally 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon becoming more light and variable overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer