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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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098 FXUS61 KBTV 171157 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 757 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly light rain showers, with a few heavier showers in the St. Lawrence Valley, will be primarily across northern New York today as a weak low pressure system ambles eastward. Rain chances will slowly increase into Vermont tomorrow with more widespread rainfall on Monday. By late Tuesday, drier and cooler weather will take hold. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 757 AM EDT Saturday...Main change was to overhaul PoPs based on radar, rain gauge, and mesoanalysis data. The corridor of rain is rather narrow and not expected to move eastward much, with only brief periods during the day where any showers could be possible into Vermont. Have maintained slight chance of thunder in this area mainly in western St. Lawrence County for later today, as some very skinny CAPE could support an embedded thunderstorm. Showers evident on radar in the southern Adirondacks moving towards our area will likely result in only a trace amount of rain, as our region from the Champlain Valley eastward has a plethora of dry air aloft. Previous Discussion... A couple of features will drive our weather through the weekend: a sprawling low pressure area currently centered over Michigan and a high pressure area just south of the Canadian Maritimes. These features will only slowly move eastward, which in turn will gradually turn the balance towards the low pressure area and increasingly frequent rain showers, mainly in northern New York. Instability and moisture will be on the increase, but persistent low level southeasterly flow around the high pressure system will promote stable air. These conditions will greatly limit potential for significant rain along and east of the Green Mountains, and even farther west with some influence of the marine air evident back to the eastern Adirondacks. Daytime temperatures will be near seasonable values, while moderately humid air and breezes will keep temperatures overnight on the mild side. The referenced wind will be notable after several days of light winds. Southeast or south-southeast winds are expected to increase this morning, especially across the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley as the 850 millibar flow maximizes in this corridor and slowly shifts to the east. Locations across northern portions of the Adirondacks and near Lake Champlain should be able to tap into these winds aloft to see some peak gusts in the range of 30 to 35 MPH this evening into the early morning hours. While flooding risk is low, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in our western areas looks reasonable. There will be a sharp gradient between poor ingredients for much rain at all and heavy rain potential. The St. Lawrence Valley will have much better moisture and instability than areas to the east, and yet the dynamics look too limited to take advantage. That being said, the local probability matched mean HREF rainfall does show a narrow 3" rainfall total through Sunday evening in a very narrow swath, indicative of a reasonable worst case scenario. The timeframe of the heavier rainfall probably would be Sunday afternoon. Some convective allowing models show a few footprints of hourly rainfall of an inch during this period across southeastern St. Lawrence County. The associated stronger convection would be tied to a an embedded shortwave lifting northeastward through central New York, and the predictability of such a feature is fairly low in this time range. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Surface low and upper level trough will be centered over Western New York on Sunday evening. These features will continue to slowly track eastward during Sunday night. Showers will increase in coverage overnight and spread eastward ahead of surface trough which will cross the region during the day Monday. As the surface front crosses our area on Monday, we could see some heavy rain and also embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall totals across our area from Sunday night through Monday will range from around a half an inch in eastern Vermont, up to an inch in the Adirondacks. Models continue to indicate that heaviest precipitation will be on Monday afternoon, and models also continue to show a linear feature developing as the cold front crosses the area. Will need to monitor potential for heavy rain as PWATs will be in excess of 1.5 inches. It has been over a week since we`ve had widespread precipitation, so at this time think we`ll be able to handle some rain without flooding issues developing. Will need to watch for training thunderstorms. Have added heavy rain wording to the forecast. There will not be a lot of surface based instability with temperatures not making it out of the upper 70s in our warmest spots. Winds will be gusty out of the south ahead of the cold frontal passage as well, especially in the Champlain valley where the flow will be channeled. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Upper level trough will linger a bit behind the surface low, this will lead to continued chances for showers on Monday night into early Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon surface ridging will build into our area and showers will come to an end. With strong cold front east of our region, temperatures will be cool Monday night and Tuesday. We will have some locations in the Adirondacks in the mid 40s Monday night, then highs will likely remain in the 60s areawide on Tuesday. Surface and upper level ridges will build into our region Tuesday night and remain through much of the week. We will have a gradual warming trend with temperatures returning to seasonable levels and drier weather once again. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions in much of the area will continue. The exception is in eastern Vermont where a shallow stratus deck is resulting in a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions at EFK and MPV. Expect gradual improvement with scattering of this low cloud deck some time through the 14Z to 18Z period at these sites. Through much of the TAF period, a corridor of showers will affect KMSS and possibly SLK at times, with increasing chances of reducing visibilities to 4SM. Winds will continue to be SSE generally 4 to 8 knots through the period with periods of gustiness, primarily at BTV this morning, and possibly again towards 00Z. Peak gusts will be near 20 knots. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kutikoff