043
FXUS61 KBTV 301117
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
717 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
We`ve got a warm day on tap across the North Country with sunny
skies helping temps warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Showers
and thunderstorms return to the region late tonight and again on
Tuesday as a series of fronts traverse the region. Unsettled weather
appears to stick around through much of the week with chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will
moderate from above normal this afternoon to near normal Wednesday
onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Monday...It`ll be a foggy start to the morning for
many as mostly clear skies and light winds have set the stage for a
good radiational cooling night. Recent rainfall has saturated the
surface layer and with an increasingly strong subsidence inversion
developing overnight, moisture will be trapped at ground level. The
latest nighttime microphysics imagery from GOES 16 shows a plethora
of fog already situating across the Connecticut and Winooski River
Valleys. This fog will only expand in coverage through 6 AM and
begin to slowly mix out following sunrise. Be cautious on your
morning commute as dense fog could limit visibilities in some places
through the morning commute.

It`ll be a warm summer day across the North Country as plentiful
sunshine will help us warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Dewpoints continue to look like they will reside in the 60s
throughout the day but some high-res guidance is showing us mixing
down some lower dewpoint air just off the deck this afternoon as we
maximize diurnal heating. It`ll still be warm but maybe some
slightly lower dewpoints may help it feel a little more comfortable
out there. Temperatures tonight will be well above normal as
increasing cloud cover around sunset should limit radiational
cooling. Many locations will be approaching their record maximum low
temperatures with temps only falling into the mid 60s to mid 70s
(warmest in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys).

Monday night into Tuesday looks messy across the region as several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms appears likely. During the
overnight hours Monday leading into Tuesday morning, the upper level
trough will begin to slide eastward with upper level diffluence
expected across the region. These initial mid-level height falls and
associated pre-frontal trough will be a focus for overnight and
early morning showers and thunderstorms; all of which would be sub-
severe. However, all high-res guidance is getting on board with a
period of destabilization late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon
ahead of a surface cold front. The whole pattern on Tuesday looks
messy as a wind shift from the southeast to south will occur mid-
morning which will decrease surface convergence as the frontal
boundary moves through the region. Nevertheless, sufficient CAPE and
effective layer shear will be present to support a conditional
severe threat for portions of southern and eastern Vermont. The most
likely scenario will be several discrete cells merging into a
multicellular cluster along the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon
with a few embedded stronger cores. SPC continues to maintain a
marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon but the best
environment for strong to severe storms will likely be to our south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Monday...A cold front will push through the region
during the day on Tuesday, with cooler and drier conditions
gradually filtering into the region Tuesday night. Overnight low
temperatures look to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
region, with portions of the broader valleys dropping into the mid
60s. The cooler and drier conditions will continue into Wednesday,
with a brief period of high pressure nosing into the region. High
temperatures Wednesday will warm into the 80s, with mostly sunny
skies expected by the afternoon. Overnight lows will be fairly
seasonable, generally in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Monday...An upper level trough will begin to push
into the region, bringing cooler weather and chances for showers. A
shortwave looks to pivot around this feature, bringing widespread
shower development during the day Thursday. Shower activity should
begin to wane heading into the evening with the loss of diurnal
heating, the cold pool aloft may allow for showers to continue into
Friday. High pressure and upper level ridging will begin to build
into the region Friday into the weekend, with relatively seasonable
temperatures expected during this time frame. Precipitation chances
look to return towards Sunday, although the exact timing of any
precipitation is uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z TUESDAY...Fog is beginning to mix out of the river
valleys this morning with only KMPV being impacted by VLIFR fog
which will likely dissipate around 13Z. Thereafter, south to
southwest winds of 10 knots or less and clear skies will prevail
through the daylight hours. A few gusts up to 20 knots could be
seen at times in the Champlain Valley this afternoon but
shouldn`t be frequent. Mid-level clouds will overspread the
region after 00Z with rain chances beginning to enter the
northern New York terminals towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Clay