900
FXUS61 KBTV 150838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
438 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a mixture of hazy skies and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms today. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
and small hail. Warm and humid conditions through tomorrow will
give way to cooler and wetter weather from Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 437 AM EDT Thursday...Isolated clusters of showers and
thunderstorms overnight have been moving from north to south and
have produced observed wind gusts to 25 MPH. Expect a more
amped up version of this activity during the day today as the
overall upper level pattern remains stuck. The latest SPC
outlook has placed most of our region in a level 1 risk for
severe thunderstorms, with wind and hail as possible hazards
during the afternoon and evening hours. Deep layer shear will be
on the low side near 20-25 knots, but sufficient for organized
storms particularly in eastern Vermont. Think while the best
overlap of CAPE and shear will be to our east, our area can
overachieve on moderately high CAPE days and we we will have a
surface trigger. A westward moving trough axis will be near or
over eastern Vermont this afternoon and become the focus for
somewhat more organized, multi-cellular thunderstorms, aided by
daytime heating. HREF mean surface- based CAPE looks to be a
regional maximum across northern Vermont and New York this
afternoon, most likely in the 1000-1500 J/kg range but with
20-40% chance of exceeding 2000 J/kg for much of the area.
Noting that 500 millibar heights will be rising gradually,
progged instability will peak in the early afternoon and then
gradually diminish. That being said, strong heating will steepen
low level lapse rates, with mixing depths upwards of 8,000
feet, which should help keep thunderstorms that develop going
even with the trend towards decreasing CAPE. As in recent days,
precipitable water and atmospheric relative humidity will be
moderate such that excessive rainfall is a low concern.

The other topic of note is haze due to wildfire smoke. The prominent
northerly flow aloft is expected to bring an increase in
concentration of smoke today. Skies may become rather hazy and
air quality could be impacted based on the HRRR- and RAP-smoke
models, which show near-surface concentrations increasing later
today. Air quality forecasts and guidance can be found from the
NY State Department of Environmental Conservation and Vermont
Agency of Natural Resources.

Diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow,
although it will be a quality with a lesser risk of impacts
given warming mid level temperatures, which will limit
thunderstorms to only the most vigorous updrafts and mainly over
the high terrain. Temperatures continue to trend a bit warmer,
with highs ranging through the 80s. With continued humid, but
not muggy, dew points, heat risk will be relatively low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night will be dry for the most
part, but there will be increasing chances for showers in our
western zones across Northern New York headed into Saturday morning
associated with an approaching warm front lifting towards the area.
Overnight low temperatures will be mild for mid August with lows
ranging through the 60s. Chance for showers will spread further into
the region on Saturday as low pressure over the Great Lakes slowly
tracks eastward, and associated warm front lifts into Northern New
York. This low will be very slow moving, therefore best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be over Northern New York from Friday
night into Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...Vertically stacked surface and upper
level low pressure systems will be centered over the Great Lakes
region on Saturday night, and will only very slowly track eastward.
From Saturday night through Sunday there will be some scattered
showers around as shortwave energy rotates around very slow moving
upper low. On Sunday night into Monday these features will finally
pass east of our forecast area. Models continue to indicate humid
conditions in place through the weekend as we remain in warm sector
ahead of this low pressure system. At times precipitable water
values will surpass 1.50 inches, topping out around 1.75 inches.
This will mean there`s a chance for heavy rain until the boundary
finally passes on Monday. Our forecast area remains in Marginal risk
for excessive rainfall from Saturday right through Monday. Overall
rain threat looks highest in NY Saturday and Sunday as the upper
trough draws near, but then expands into VT Monday/Monday night as
the trough moves eastward, with a cold front eventually moving
through sometime in the early to mid week. Daytime temperatures
aren`t expected to be especially warm during this time frame with
highs only in the mid 70s to around 80, but it will be muggy, and
lows will remain in the 60s for most spots until a frontal passage
Monday or Tuesday. From Tuesday through Thursday there will be a
return to drier weather with high pressure ridging over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Conditions will remain VFR through much of
the period. The main aviation hazard will be locally dense
valley fog in the climatologically favored valleys, although
10 to 20 knots of westerly wind at the top of the nocturnal
inversion is present. While these winds are expected to relax
somewhat, this scenario will limit duration of fog. Greatest
chances of fog are between 09Z and 12Z at MPV, SLK, and EFK.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon,
with coverage at TAF sites expected to be isolated leading to
use of VCSH at this time. Greatest chances are between 18Z and
22Z. Winds will be mainly calm at the surface through the
overnight, then becoming northwesterly at most sites between 15Z
and 18Z at 4 to 8 knots, and diminishing again towards 00Z.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff