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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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836 FXUS61 KBTV 151420 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect a mixture of hazy skies and isolated to scattered thunderstorms today. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail. Warm and humid conditions through tomorrow will give way to cooler and wetter weather from Saturday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1009 AM EDT Thursday...Forecast remains in good shape this morning, with only a few minor adjustments needed to temperatures and winds. Skies continue to look quite milky outside and on visible satellite this morning. Radar across the region is currently quiet, although some ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue across Maine into New Hampshire. Previous Discussion... Isolated clusters of showers and thunderstorms overnight have been moving from north to south and have produced observed wind gusts to 25 MPH. Expect a more amped up version of this activity during the day today as the overall upper level pattern remains stuck. The latest SPC outlook has placed most of our region in a level 1 risk for severe thunderstorms, with wind and hail as possible hazards during the afternoon and evening hours. Deep layer shear will be on the low side near 20-25 knots, but sufficient for organized storms particularly in eastern Vermont. Think while the best overlap of CAPE and shear will be to our east, our area can overachieve on moderately high CAPE days and we we will have a surface trigger. A westward moving trough axis will be near or over eastern Vermont this afternoon and become the focus for somewhat more organized, multi-cellular thunderstorms, aided by daytime heating. HREF mean surface- based CAPE looks to be a regional maximum across northern Vermont and New York this afternoon, most likely in the 1000-1500 J/kg range but with 20-40% chance of exceeding 2000 J/kg for much of the area. Noting that 500 millibar heights will be rising gradually, progged instability will peak in the early afternoon and then gradually diminish. That being said, strong heating will steepen low level lapse rates, with mixing depths upwards of 8,000 feet, which should help keep thunderstorms that develop going even with the trend towards decreasing CAPE. As in recent days, precipitable water and atmospheric relative humidity will be moderate such that excessive rainfall is a low concern. The other topic of note is haze due to wildfire smoke. The prominent northerly flow aloft is expected to bring an increase in concentration of smoke today. Skies may become rather hazy and air quality could be impacted based on the HRRR- and RAP-smoke models, which show near-surface concentrations increasing later today. Air quality forecasts and guidance can be found from the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation and Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow, although it will be a quality with a lesser risk of impacts given warming mid level temperatures, which will limit thunderstorms to only the most vigorous updrafts and mainly over the high terrain. Temperatures continue to trend a bit warmer, with highs ranging through the 80s. With continued humid, but not muggy, dew points, heat risk will be relatively low. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night will be dry for the most part, but there will be increasing chances for showers in our western zones across Northern New York headed into Saturday morning associated with an approaching warm front lifting towards the area. Overnight low temperatures will be mild for mid August with lows ranging through the 60s. Chance for showers will spread further into the region on Saturday as low pressure over the Great Lakes slowly tracks eastward, and associated warm front lifts into Northern New York. This low will be very slow moving, therefore best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over Northern New York from Friday night into Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...Vertically stacked surface and upper level low pressure systems will be centered over the Great Lakes region on Saturday night, and will only very slowly track eastward. From Saturday night through Sunday there will be some scattered showers around as shortwave energy rotates around very slow moving upper low. On Sunday night into Monday these features will finally pass east of our forecast area. Models continue to indicate humid conditions in place through the weekend as we remain in warm sector ahead of this low pressure system. At times precipitable water values will surpass 1.50 inches, topping out around 1.75 inches. This will mean there`s a chance for heavy rain until the boundary finally passes on Monday. Our forecast area remains in Marginal risk for excessive rainfall from Saturday right through Monday. Overall rain threat looks highest in NY Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough draws near, but then expands into VT Monday/Monday night as the trough moves eastward, with a cold front eventually moving through sometime in the early to mid week. Daytime temperatures aren`t expected to be especially warm during this time frame with highs only in the mid 70s to around 80, but it will be muggy, and lows will remain in the 60s for most spots until a frontal passage Monday or Tuesday. From Tuesday through Thursday there will be a return to drier weather with high pressure ridging over the area. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Due to increasing concentration of wildfire smoke, it looks like some MVFR visibilities associated with haze will become probable today at most TAF sites. Currently seeing several observations of 6 or 7 SM. In addition to haze, still expect isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. Greatest chances are between 18Z and 22Z. Light southwesterly winds through about 15Z will trend northwesterly thereafter between 4 and 8 knots, and diminishing again towards 00Z. climatologically favored valleys, although 10 to 20 knots of westerly wind at the top of the nocturnal inversion is present. While these winds are expected to relax somewhat, this scenario will limit duration of fog. Another round of fog from 06Z to 12Z is expected at SLK, possibly at MPV where fog did not materialize early this morning, and potentially at any site that sees rainfall late this afternoon/evening. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kutikoff