129
FXUS61 KBTV 131423
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today but
no additional flooding is anticipated at this time. Hot
temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s and muggy dew points
are expected Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday that will bring another round of rainfall to the
region. Following the frontal passage, a return of cooler and
less humid air is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1023 AM EDT Saturday...Only minor adjustments needed to
the forecast for the remainder of the day. Temps are running
just slightly above forecast but remain on track to top out in
the 80s with the highest values in the Champlain and lower CT
River Valleys. Otherwise, convective potential still looks good
with a likely initiation point being the lake breeze over the
Adirondack Coast around noon then shifting eastward through the
afternoon before dissipating by sunset. Main threat continues to
be flash flooding, which is touched on below in the previous
discussion.

Previous discussion...A compact upper level shortwave will move
across the region today. While the region`s atmosphere will be
on a drying trend, there will still be enough moisture to
trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, particularly in
northern areas closest to the best forcing from the shortwave.
CAMs are showing ML CAPE values around 900-1500 J/kg and shear
around 40-50 knots, indicating some marginal severe potential.
Regardless of whether the scattered storms are severe or not,
heavy rainfall is a concern with precipitable water nearing
1.50" in some spots. Flash flood guidance is around 1.0-1.5" in
an hour for central and northern Vermont as well as some of the
harder hit parts of northern New York. Highs will be a touch
above seasonable in the 80s for most.

Following the scattered precipitation, clouds will be on the decline
this evening and into tonight as surface high pressure begins to
build into the region from the Ohio Valley. While still above
seasonal averages, temperatures overnight will be slightly cooler
than they have been the past couple of nights in the upper 50s to
upper 60s. Tomorrow will be mostly dry and hot with highs in the
80s. In some portions of the Champlain Valley, apparent temperatures
could even peek into the lower 90s. A shower in the mountains is not
out of the question due to such heat and humidity, but the chances
for precipitation remain relatively low during the day tomorrow with
a weak ridge overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...A weak shortwave will slide along the
international border during this period, bringing the chance for
showers and possible daytime thunderstorms. Temperatures will once
again warm into the mid 80s to low 90s, while dewpoints will rise
into the mid 60s to around 70F. CAPE values of 1200+ J/kg will be
possible, but shear will relatively weak at only 20 kt or so. So
while scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday
afternoon, severe weather is not anticipated. Still, warm cloud
depths of 11+ kft and PWATs around 1.5 inches indicate brief heavy
rainfall will be possible. The hot and muggy conditions will also
heighten the heat risk, and heat index values look to get pretty
close to Advisory criteria (95F) in some spots. Trends will be
watched closely over the next couple of days. With ample moisture
around, both Sunday and Monday nights will be muggy and rather
uncomfortable as lows will only dip into the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...Hot and humid weather will continue into
mid week next week, along with chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Convection is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday as
a frontal system brings a series of surface troughs/fronts across
the area. Ample shear and instability both days means storms could
be on the strong side, with gusty winds the most likely threat,
along with heavy rainfall. A cold frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon will finally bring relief from the relentless humidity;
dewpoints will drop into the 50s by Thursday, making the end of the
week far more comfortable. High pressure will settle over the region
Thursday and Friday, bringing fair weather with seasonable
temperatures. Highs will be in the low 70s to low 80s, while
overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Fog is gradually dissipating across the
forecast area, so MPV and SLK are expected to have visibilities
and ceilings return to VFR levels within the next hour or so.
VFR conditions will prevail for all sites throughout the day
today outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms that could
briefly lower ceilings and vis. Winds will be mostly light,
variable, and terrain-based today, largely unique to each site.
Tonight, skies are expected to clear and winds will become calm
or very light, leading to another night favorable for fog
development. Current models indicate SLK, MPV, and EFK are most
favorable for fog, though anywhere that gets rain today would
have an extra boost in terms of fog likelihood.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Likely TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm