222
FXUS61 KBTV 160558
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Some showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon before
tapering off later this evening, with drier conditions expected
tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Unsettled conditions return for
the weekend, with chances for showers and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 158 AM EDT Friday...No changes needed at this time on a
quiet night. There are perhaps more areas of fog than expected
already developing, so may need to enhance the coverage of dense
fog with the full forecast package. Otherwise, extant forecast
is in good shape.

Previous discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been
struggling to develop this afternoon with some 500mb height
rises and increasing subsidence across the region. Any shower
activity will dwindle down as we head into the evening and
overnight hours. With light and variable winds, fog development
seems likely across some of the climatologically favored river
valleys, especially in locations that see any rainfall this
afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, with some mid 50s
across the higher terrain.

Heading into tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in overhead
which will bring some drier weather to the region. Temperatures will
warm into the upper 70s and 80s, with upper 80s expected across the
broader valleys. Although widespread precipitation is not expected
across the region, a isolated shower or two across (particularly
across the higher terrain) cannot be ruled out. An Air Quality Alert
is in effect for Vermont for Friday due to fine particulate matter
from wildfire smoke. Additional information regarding air quality
and guidance can be found from the NY State Department of
Environmental Conservation and Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. A
fairly quiet night will be expected across the region tomorrow
before the next system moves into the region, with low temperatures
in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...We`ll see increasing chances for showers
on Saturday, particularly across the St Lawrence Valley and
Adirondacks, as an upper low slowly pushes eastward across the Great
Lakes. Moisture will increase on south/southwest flow, so expect
showers will become fairly numerous across northern NY during the
daylight hours Saturday. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible as
well. Further east, there`s less forcing, so any showers should
remain more scattered in nature; indeed, some portions of VT could
well remain dry for a good part of the day. Still, can`t rule out
some rain in any one location, so have at least 30-50% PoPs for most
areas at some point Saturday afternoon/evening. Highs will be
seasonable, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will be on the
muggy side Saturday night, as most spots will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather will persist through
the first part of next week, and starting to note that heavy rain is
looking a bit more likely, particularly Monday/Monday night. The
trough/surface low will continue to slowly trundle eastward through
the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night, then cross our region on
Monday/Monday night, along with a frontal boundary. While PWATs are
still not expected to be exceedingly high (by comparison to other
events this summer; they`ll still be 90th percentile, upwards of
1.75 inches), moisture does look to deepen as the low/trough/front
push through. Warm cloud depths approaching 12 kft, deep layer moist
adiabatic lapse rates, and small Corfidi vectors all point toward
efficient rain makers and potential heavy rainfall rates. Highest
chances would be late Sunday night through Monday/Monday night, and
note probabilities for 24-hr totals of 1+ inch have increased.
Likewise, deterministic guidance have some heavier rainfall axes in
NY/NE, with 48-hr totals of 1.5 to 3+ inches in some spots. There`s
considerable disagreement on where these potential heavier rainfall
amounts would be however, but with a slow moving upper trough,
frontal boundary, and a tropical source of moisture lingering well
off the East Coast, we will need to continue to watch trends
closely.

For the most part, the worst of the rainfall looks to exit by
Tuesday, and drier conditions are expected for mid week, though a
few showers may linger as the upper trough remains close by. with
ample cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the 70s to around 80
for Sunday and Monday, then turning cooler after the frontal
passage. Overnights will be noticeably more comfortable after the
front moves through as well, changing from lows in the 60s to lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Areas of dense fog have developed early
this morning, affecting some terminals including SLK and RUT.
While brief fluctuations are possible, have indicated prevailing
LIFR at these sites given strong subsidence and moderately
humid surface conditions. There is also a low chance of fog at
MPV, with a tempo group indicated after 09Z. Between 11Z and 12Z
any fog will clear out with return to VFR conditions through
the daytime with winds remaining light/terrain driven. A very
low chance of showers impacting northern New York terminals is
noted at the end of the TAF period, too low to indicate at this
time but bears watching. Western Canadian wildfire smoke aloft
is not expected to result in visibility restrictions at terminal
elevation during this time.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Chai/Kutikoff