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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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222 FXUS61 KBTV 160558 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 158 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Some showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon before tapering off later this evening, with drier conditions expected tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend, with chances for showers and seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 158 AM EDT Friday...No changes needed at this time on a quiet night. There are perhaps more areas of fog than expected already developing, so may need to enhance the coverage of dense fog with the full forecast package. Otherwise, extant forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been struggling to develop this afternoon with some 500mb height rises and increasing subsidence across the region. Any shower activity will dwindle down as we head into the evening and overnight hours. With light and variable winds, fog development seems likely across some of the climatologically favored river valleys, especially in locations that see any rainfall this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, with some mid 50s across the higher terrain. Heading into tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in overhead which will bring some drier weather to the region. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and 80s, with upper 80s expected across the broader valleys. Although widespread precipitation is not expected across the region, a isolated shower or two across (particularly across the higher terrain) cannot be ruled out. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for Vermont for Friday due to fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke. Additional information regarding air quality and guidance can be found from the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation and Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. A fairly quiet night will be expected across the region tomorrow before the next system moves into the region, with low temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...We`ll see increasing chances for showers on Saturday, particularly across the St Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, as an upper low slowly pushes eastward across the Great Lakes. Moisture will increase on south/southwest flow, so expect showers will become fairly numerous across northern NY during the daylight hours Saturday. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible as well. Further east, there`s less forcing, so any showers should remain more scattered in nature; indeed, some portions of VT could well remain dry for a good part of the day. Still, can`t rule out some rain in any one location, so have at least 30-50% PoPs for most areas at some point Saturday afternoon/evening. Highs will be seasonable, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will be on the muggy side Saturday night, as most spots will remain in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather will persist through the first part of next week, and starting to note that heavy rain is looking a bit more likely, particularly Monday/Monday night. The trough/surface low will continue to slowly trundle eastward through the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night, then cross our region on Monday/Monday night, along with a frontal boundary. While PWATs are still not expected to be exceedingly high (by comparison to other events this summer; they`ll still be 90th percentile, upwards of 1.75 inches), moisture does look to deepen as the low/trough/front push through. Warm cloud depths approaching 12 kft, deep layer moist adiabatic lapse rates, and small Corfidi vectors all point toward efficient rain makers and potential heavy rainfall rates. Highest chances would be late Sunday night through Monday/Monday night, and note probabilities for 24-hr totals of 1+ inch have increased. Likewise, deterministic guidance have some heavier rainfall axes in NY/NE, with 48-hr totals of 1.5 to 3+ inches in some spots. There`s considerable disagreement on where these potential heavier rainfall amounts would be however, but with a slow moving upper trough, frontal boundary, and a tropical source of moisture lingering well off the East Coast, we will need to continue to watch trends closely. For the most part, the worst of the rainfall looks to exit by Tuesday, and drier conditions are expected for mid week, though a few showers may linger as the upper trough remains close by. with ample cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the 70s to around 80 for Sunday and Monday, then turning cooler after the frontal passage. Overnights will be noticeably more comfortable after the front moves through as well, changing from lows in the 60s to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Areas of dense fog have developed early this morning, affecting some terminals including SLK and RUT. While brief fluctuations are possible, have indicated prevailing LIFR at these sites given strong subsidence and moderately humid surface conditions. There is also a low chance of fog at MPV, with a tempo group indicated after 09Z. Between 11Z and 12Z any fog will clear out with return to VFR conditions through the daytime with winds remaining light/terrain driven. A very low chance of showers impacting northern New York terminals is noted at the end of the TAF period, too low to indicate at this time but bears watching. Western Canadian wildfire smoke aloft is not expected to result in visibility restrictions at terminal elevation during this time. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Chai/Kutikoff