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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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761 FXUS61 KBTV 160823 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 423 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm conditions and hazy skies will continue today under an upper level ridge. Chances of rain showers late tonight into tomorrow increase, especially in western portions of northern New York. More active weather is expected early next week, peaking on Monday when rainfall looks most widespread. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Typical summertime weather is expected today with temperatures warming into the 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Upper air analysis shows a large upper level ridge over western portions of Quebec, which is driving a persistent northerly flow on its eastern flank across our region. This scenario is a continuation of what we`ve seen in recent days which has led to increasing haze from wildfire smoke making the trek from the Canadian Prairies. However, at the surface, subtle pressure falls associated with a slow moving and broad low pressure area in the western Great Lakes will help our winds gradually pick up out of the south, especially tonight. So the haziness may tend to decrease. At the same time, given trends towards mainly dry weather for tomorrow, some fine particles could be trapped under an inversion through this period given the mid level warming and lack of rainfall. Said rainfall chances today still look to be tied to the high terrain given lack of trigger for convection. The isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to be run of the mill with regards to hazards, and cloud layer flow will probably push them slowly eastward amidst a low shear environment. Instability looks only moderate, limiting the potential intensity of cells, especially as they move off the mountains; the HREF interquartile range of surface- based CAPE peaks in the 300 to 1200 J/kg during the afternoon. For tonight into Saturday, shower chances will be tied to the progression of the aforementioned low pressure area as it ambles to the east. Distinctly greater rainfall chances and amounts are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley where forcing for upward motion and moisture will be favorable for rounds of showers, which could be heavy at times. Farther east it will become more of a struggle to see rain. Model guidance continues to show bands of showers working eastward late tonight through tomorrow following surges of mid-level theta-e advection, but we`re expecting little if any measurable rainfall. Low level easterly trajectories, especially east of the Adirondacks, will limit heating and moisture at the surface, and warm air aloft will also work against convection such that rain will sputter out as it progresses to the east. The trend towards dry weather coincides with slightly warmer high temperatures than previous forecasts, although there is a bit more spread in possible highs than typical for a day 2 forecast. It will also be increasingly breezy, with a modest pressure gradient developing. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH range will be common in the broad valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will featured continued scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms as vertically stacked low pressure system continues to very slowly approach from the Great Lakes. Saturday night should mainly be dry and muggy with southerly flow and cloudy skies. Low temperatures will range through the 60s. Will have an increase in showers across our area on Sunday, though coverage will continue to be pretty scattered. We will remain under southwesterly flow as trough axis still will not reach our area by the end of the day Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Surface and upper level troughs will finally cross our area on Monday. Best chance for widespread precipitation will be on Monday, though once the trough finally gets here it should push west to east across our area at a reasonable speed. Right now looks like storm total precipitation will range from about three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter. We could see higher amounts in any thunderstorms that develop Monday afternoon. Temperatures will not be overly warm on Monday with precipitation and cloudy skies, highs generally in the upper 60s to upper 70s, coolest in the St Lawrence valley where the cold frontal passage occurs earliest. Will continue to monitor for potential for heavy rain on Monday, at this time looks like PWATs will top out around 1.75". NAM model continues to hint at potential for PWATs to reach around 2". Drier conditions are then expected from Tuesday through most of the week as surface and upper level ridging will build over our area. Tuesday will be cool behind departing cold front, but then we will have a gradual warming trend with temperatures returning to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Areas of dense fog have developed early this morning, affecting some terminals including SLK and RUT. While brief fluctuations are possible, have indicated prevailing LIFR at these sites given strong subsidence and moderately humid surface conditions. There is also a low chance of fog at MPV, with a tempo group indicated after 09Z. Between 11Z and 12Z any fog will clear out with return to VFR conditions through the daytime with winds remaining light/terrain driven. A very low chance of showers impacting northern New York terminals is noted at the end of the TAF period, too low to indicate at this time but bears watching. Western Canadian wildfire smoke aloft is not expected to result in visibility restrictions at terminal elevation during this time. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kutikoff