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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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602 FXUS61 KBTV 201143 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will bring another pleasant summer day today with warm temperatures and modest humidity levels expected. A weakening cold front approaching from southeastern Ontario and southern Quebec will bring increasing clouds and just a low chance of a brief shower for tonight. Dry and slightly cooler conditions are expected with north winds on Sunday behind the cold front. Rain chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday as a quasi-stationary front sets up across New York and New England. Some embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms are possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 737 AM EDT Saturday...A narrow zone of surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes ewd across New York and New England will remain our controlling weather feature throughout today. Other than some patchy early AM fog in the favored valley locations of central/ern VT and within the Adirondack region of NY, looking for mostly sunny conditions and just passing high clouds, especially across s-central VT. Valley high temperatures will once again reach the low-mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s. All in all, modest humidity levels across the North COuntry compared to much of the past 2-3 weeks. Gradient winds become SW 5-10 mph during the daylight hrs. Winds may locally gust 20-25 mph in the St. Lawrence Valley with valley channeled flow. A cold front across northern Quebec and Ontario early Saturday AM will translate southward, bringing increasing clouds across our region from NW-SE for the overnight period into early Sunday morning. The front and associated low-level convergence is generally weakening with time, but may see a few rain showers/sprinkles across northern areas, mainly after midnight tonight consistent with NAM-3km and HRRR/RAP forecasts. Have indicated 30-40 PoPs across the far north, and a few spots may see up to 0.05-0.10" rainfall during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Winds shift into the N-NW toward daybreak with a several hour period of post-frontal stratus likely, especially across the northern half of the region. While a few isold showers may persist in the Adirondacks and central/nern VT after daybreak, the general trend Sunday morning will be for gradual clearing and mostly sunny conditions developing by noon or so. Modest low- level CAA will result in slightly cooler high temperatures on Sunday, especially across the northern zones (roughly 5F cooler than the expected highs on Saturday). Highs on Sunday generally in the mid-upper 70s across the northern valleys, but still reaching the lower 80s in the upper CT Valley Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 AM EDT Saturday...A period of dry weather is expected Sunday night through much of Monday in the wake of the cold front pushing through the region earlier in the day on Sunday. Model soundings show a plethora of mid- level moisture descending across the region Sunday night which should yield clear skies through much of this period before we start to see the cold front lift back north as a warm front Monday night. Increasing low-level and mid-level moisture is expected to bring the return of clouds and some scattered showers to southern Vermont Monday night while the northern half of the state is expected to remain dry with just an increase in cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 314 AM EDT Saturday...An active period of weather is expected to unfold beginning on Tuesday. The Bermuda High, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, is expected to shift westward and intensify which will help push the aforementioned warm front into interior New England. A high PWAT airmass (1.75" to 2.0") is expected to overspread portions of New England with moisture-rich Atlantic air spreading inland. The question remains how far inland this front is able to make it with the latest guidance suggesting it will lift into Vermont and New York on Tuesday. This is expected to allow increasing shower activity across the region, especially during the afternoon hours, to the region. Thunderstorms will also be possible but given tall and skinny CAPE profiles on model soundings, it seems like heavy rain will be the only concern with any storms that develop. The front is expected to be somewhat transient but slow moving meaning the axis of any heavy rain that develops will lift north on Tuesday and then begin sinking southward on Wednesday and Thursday. It won`t be raining all of Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday at any one location but several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected at many locations across the region. The latest probabilistic guidance from the LREF and NBM show decent probabilities of exceeding one inch of rainfall next week with less than a half of an inch on any given day. However, with thunderstorm potential, localized heavy rainfall is likely and will be tied to the placement of the warm front given localized enhanced surface convergence. We remain under a marginal (5-15%) risk for flash flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday given antecedent wet conditions and the possibility of heavy rain. It`s worth monitoring next week closely, especially if you live in areas that experienced heavy rain on July 10th and 11th. More details will be provided in coming days as more information becomes available. Strong surface high pressure and increasing mid-level heights are expected to move overhead Friday into Saturday which should finally push the front out of the region and allow for rainfall come to an end. This pattern change from wet to dry conditions will be highlighted by increasing temperatures next weekend as it`s feasible to think we could see a few locations in southern Vermont approach 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Early AM fog and LIFR at MPV is expected to dissipate between 1230-13Z. Otherwise, Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 06Z Sunday. The daylight hrs will feature passing high clouds (FEW-SCT200-250) with SW winds 5-10kts. Locally at KMSS, valley channeled flow will yield SW winds 10-12kt with gusts up to 20kts during the mid- day/afternoon hours. A cold front approaching from southern Quebec and southeast Ontario will bring increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday morning, Clouds generally BKN-OVC040-060 in advance of the front. However, appears a 2-4hr of post-frontal stratus will bring most of the northern TAF sites down to MVFR and possibly IFR conditions 08-12Z time frame (and possibly a bit beyond). Indicated OVC023 at BTV starting around 08Z Sunday. A few light rain showers or sprinkles may (20-30% chance of measurable rainfall) affect the northern TAF locations (MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV/EFK) during the overnight hours. Winds will shift light N-NW after 06-09Z Sunday with the passage of the frontal bndry. Outlook... Sunday: MVFR stratus deck in the morning, with a low chance of IFR stratus in the morning. Slight chance SHRA in the morning. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Banacos