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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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617 FXUS61 KBTV 171420 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot day is expected today, especially in Vermont where temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop midday today as a slow moving front gradually progresses eastward. Some showers may contain heavy rainfall and some gusty winds, though the threat for severe weather today is lower than yesterday. Conditions become drier and cooler from Thursday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1020 AM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes made to the forecast for today with just some slight adjustments to PoPs, sky cover and temps made. The 12Z HRRR is right on track with developing showers along the western slopes of the Adirondacks at this time, and develops numerous showers and thunderstorms across northern New York and central/northern VT through early afternoon with additional convection firing across southern VT in the mid/late afternoon. Main threats continue to be heavy rain, with a secondary threat of gusty winds. More cloud cover across much of the region this morning has lead to slightly cooler temps so knocked highs down just a degree or two, but still on track to hit the low 80s north to upper 80s south with only mid/upper 70s over the Adirondacks. Previous discussion... A southwest/northeast oriented front will slowly move eastward over our forecast area today. Conditions will start off dry and warm before showers and thunderstorms develop along the front midday. Temperatures today will be coolest in the Saint Lawrence Valley and the northern Adirondacks , where earlier onset of subtle cold air advection will keep highs in the 70s to around 80. Further east however, temperatures will warm into the 80s for much of Vermont. Warmest temperatures today will be in the lower elevations of eastern Windsor and Orange Counties, where heat indices in the low 90s fall just short of Heat Advisory criteria. Nonetheless, a hot day is expected for lower elevations of southeastern Vermont. Isolated showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two will initially develop late this morning in the northern Adirondacks/central Vermont. As the front works eastward midday, increasing instability (SBCAPE values in Vermont generally 500 to 1000 J/kg today) will promote increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Best 0-6 km bulk shear is slightly displaced to the northwest of the best instability, however there will be 25 to 35 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear over central and eastern Vermont. Steep low-level lapse rates will allow for gusty winds in any thunderstorms that develop, although weak mid-level lapse rates and lack of mid-level dry layer will prevent any widespread wet microburst threat. Much of our Vermont counties remains in the SPC Marginal Risk for severe weather today, which looks reasonable, with the better risk (Slight) staying to our south. Still expecting some gusty winds in thunderstorms today, but thinking mostly will remain below severe criteria. Precipitable water values over central and southern Vermont today will be in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range, with deep warm cloud layer over 12 kft. With this in mind, have added heavy rain wording to central and southern Vermont today. Total QPF amounts today will range from under 0.1 inch in much of northern NY, to 0.25 to 1.0+ inch in Vermont. Highest amounts are expected in southern Vermont. Flash flood risk will thus be highest in southern Vermont, and lower in central and northern Vermont. However, given all the recent rainfall, will be watching precip trends closely today. Thunderstorms and showers will come to an end tonight, with generally drier conditions expected Thursday. An upper level shortwave will move through Thursday, so can`t rule out a brief light shower or two, but have kept PoPs capped in the 10-20 percent range. Much lower PW values will keep any showers light in intensity. Highs Thursday will be refreshingly cool for most areas, with values topping out in the 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels will also be noticeably lower. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...Pleasant weather is expected for the end of the work week as high pressure settles over the region. A weak upper shortwave will cross overhead Thursday night, but with little in the way of moisture, don`t expect much beyond some passing cloud cover and perhaps a sprinkle or two. Friday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s with comfortable dew points in the 50s. Both Thursday night and Friday night will see perfect sleeping weather with low humidity and lows in the 50s to around 60F. A few of the more sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could even drop into the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...Fairly quiet weather will persist through the weekend and into early next week. Ridging will gradually give way to a weak cold front moving southward out of Canada. This boundary will be fairly moisture starved, but can`t rule out a few showers as it slowly crosses our region Saturday night and Sunday. The main impact though will be increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, especially in northern areas. Dry weather resumes thereafter, though precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as another stronger cold front approaches from the north while low pressure lifts up into the Northeast CONUS. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the period, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to around 60F. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected this morning as mid-level clouds stream overhead with a front gradually settling over the forecast area. A few pockets of MVFR ceilings will continue over higher terrain through 14Z, but expecting improvement to widespread VFR ceilings after 14Z. Showers and thunderstorms will develop between 15Z and 00Z today, but coverage will be scattered and thus have included some -SHRA but not TS in the TAFs at this time. Ceilings should remain mainly VFR even within storms, though visibilities will drop to the MVFR/IFR range within heavier rain showers/tstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end overnight. Some low status and mist will develop in eastern Vermont tonight after 06Z. Winds will be generally from the south/southwest today between 5-10 knots with some afternoon gusts to 15 knots. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Duell