905
FXUS61 KBTV 180651
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather returns for the end of the week and into
the weekend along with a long awaited break in humidity. A few
showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday, but dry weather
generally prevails into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...After several days of humid and showery
weather with rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain, we`re finally
catching a break for the end of the work week. The cold front has
exited to our south and east early this morning, bringing showers to
an end and allowing at least some partially clearing skies. Patchy
fog will dissipate after sunrise, but expect clouds to increase by
early afternoon as an upper shortwave swings overhead. Moisture is
pretty limited and surface ridging will be taking hold, so don`t
anticipate anything beyond a few sprinkles with the trough. Highs
will be seasonable, in the mid 70s to mid 80s, but with dew points
gradually falling through the day, it`ll definitely be a far more
comfortable day than what we`ve experienced lately. The ridge
continues to build into the region tonight and Friday, keeping skies
mostly clear and the weather fair. We`ll see another round of valley
fog tonight, along with perfect sleeping weather. Be sure to crack
open those windows as temperatures will drop into the 50s areawide,
with some of the usual colder locations in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom likely seeing 40s overnight. Friday will feature
lots of sunshine, fairly light winds, and highs very similar to
today, along with continued lower humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...Quiet weather is expected Friday night
into Saturday morning with high pressure remaining entrenched across
the North Country. A cold front will drop south out of Canada
Saturday afternoon which should help spark some scattered shower
activity across the region. Model soundings show some shallow
instability but a capping inversion around 15 kft is expected to
prevent any thunderstorms. With the parent low well north of the
International Border, shower activity along the frontal boundary
will weaken into the evening hours as the cold front shears apart.
Although we will see the passage of a "cold front", overnight lows
will remain mild Saturday night as cloud cover should prevent
radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...Sunday will be the nicest day of the
weekend, although the whole weekend is looking much better than
those of late. Following the frontal passage on Saturday, high
temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs generally into the
70s although southern Vermont could see places hit the mid to
possibly even upper 80s. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s so it`s
going to feel downright pleasant outside. An isolated afternoon
shower cannot be ruled out but it;s nothing to really be concerned
about.

The aforementioned cold front will begin to lift back northward as a
warm front on Tuesday which will help increase rain chances as we
head into the middle of the upcoming week. By Wednesday, PWATs are
expected to surge back to the 1.5" to 1.7" range which could lead to
both some thunderstorm activity and the potential for heavy rain.
The good news is there isn`t any synoptic forcing to really get
anything organized outside of the frontal boundary lifting
northward. Taking a look at some of the ensemble data, some
locations could see upwards of an inch of rain late Tuesday into
Wednesday but the overall thinking is less than a half of an inch
for most locations. We will watch this closely but it doesn`t have
the makings of a flooding event at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions should mostly prevail
through the TAF period. The exception will be periods of
IFR/LIFR in patchy fog, mainly at KSLK/KMPV through 12z
Thursday. Otherwise, showers ending early in the TAF period,
giving way to SCT ceilings AOA 10kft. Skies may go clear
briefly after 12z, but expect fair weather cumulus to develop
during the afternoon with cloud bases around 4000 ft; these will
dissipate after sunset. Light and variable to calm winds
overnight will turn to the NW at 8 to 12 kt after 14z Thursday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Hastings