455
FXUS61 KBTV 182221
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry weather conditions are expected the next couple
days. Some valley fog will be possible both tonight and
tomorrow, with seasonable nighttime temperatures in the 50s to
lower 60s. A front will approach from the north Saturday night
and early Sunday, but will wash out. This will produce only
isolated to scattered shower activity with the highest chances
along the international border before reinforcing the region
with more dry and seasonable weather. A series of weather
disturbances will bring increasing rain chances for the later
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 619 PM EDT Thursday...No big changes for the first
evening update today. Temperatures are still on track to bottom
out in the mid 40s to upper 50s as cooler and drier air works
into the region on north northwesterly flow. Still monitoring
for potential of some fog formation overnight as winds become
light and some areas have clear skies. Previous discussion
follows.

The curl of an upper trough can be seen to our north clearly on
satellite. A few showers are propagating in northwest flow
beneath the trough axis, but these are light and few in number.
Decreasing thicknesses with the trough and dry air is producing
more refreshing weather than we have had in some time. Surface
high pressure will nose in overnight. Although there could be
pockets of stratus banked up against northwestern slopes, skies
should be mostly clear. Between how saturated the ground is and
how cool weather conditions tonight, one might think it`d be the
perfect night for fog. And it would be, except that the winds
500 feet above the ground are still likely to be 10 to 15 mph.
Forecast soundings show potential mixing could still occur. For
now, have kept the previous forecaster`s valley fog with no
changes. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 40s across
the Adirondacks and 50s across the rest of the region, but
perhaps still 60 at BTV.

A nice seasonable weather day is on tap Friday with mid 70s to
lower 80s and mid 50s for dewpoints. High pressure will stretch
out west to east and a large trough will begin to carve itself
out in northern Quebec Province. This will turn our flow from
west- northwest to west-southwest. A subtle difference, but one
that will result in gradual warming. So overnight lows should
mainly stay in the 50s for most locations, with lower 60s in the
broader Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Expect some fog in
eastern Vermont river valleys with more favorable conditions,
but winds just off the surface remain near Saranac Lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather will prevail on
Saturday but increasing southwesterly flow will cause
temperatures to rise back above climatological normals. Humidity
will remain low with dew points mostly staying in the 50s.
Continued winds and increasing cloud cover will keep Saturday
night temperatures higher than previous nights. The higher
terrain should fall into the 50s but the broad valleys will
likely stay above 60. A cold front will pass through the region
from north to south and it will bring a few showers overnight.
They will be scattered over northern areas but slowly fall apart
as they move south and southern Vermont may remain dry. There
will be a strong mid-level inversion during this period and that
will prevent any thunderstorm formation. An overall dry airmass
and weak synoptic forcing will keep rainfall totals low.
Everywhere should generally see around a tenth of an inch or
less so there are no flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather generally prevails
through Monday though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out
Monday afternoon. A more meaningful low makes a run at the
region for mid week and it may bring some more meaningful
rainfall. PWATs look to rise back above 1.5 inches and the
atmosphere will be supportive of heavy rainfall. Right now the
GFS, Canadian and Euro ensembles favor the most rain falling
over southern New England and the Tri-State Area. The
probability of receiving more than an inch of rain within 24
hours for our region is less than 20 percent for these
ensembles, but a northward shift of precipitation would bring
some of the heavier rain farther north. Even farther south where
they are currently placing the heavier rain, the probabilities
of greater than 2 inches are less than 10 percent. Potential
embedded convection would lead to some higher totals that the
global guidance gives now, but even then, it continues to not
give the signals of a significant flood threat, but it will be
watched closely.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions outside potential
for patchy fog at KSLK/KMPV between roughly 05z and 11z. On one
hand, grounds are very moist and temperatures will be the
coolest they have been in weeks, but there remains 10 to 15 knot
winds around 500 ft agl. Tweaked previous forecast timing to
match last night`s observations, but there remains uncertainty
in fog potential due to winds just off the ground. Winds are out
of the northwest between 7 and 12 knots with gusts 16 to 22
knots at times. Winds become variable or terrain driven
overnight, and become northwest to west again after 12z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes