018
FXUS61 KBTV 191138
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very pleasant weather conditions will prevail today and much of
tomorrow with seasonable temperatures. A front will approach
from the north Saturday night and early Sunday, but will wash
out. This will produce only isolated to scattered shower
activity with the highest chances along the international border
before reinforcing the region with more dry and seasonable
weather. A series of weather disturbances will bring increasing
rain chances for the later half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Friday...The Sun is up, and what little fog did
develop is dwindling. BTV did manage a brief 59 reading which
hasn`t been seen since July 3rd, and Saranac Lake managed 42.
So a truly refreshing change of pace. All is on track this
morning. Have a great day!

Previous discussion...It has been a pleasant night with
temperatures in the mid 40s to 50s across most of the region.
Weather conditions will remain pleasant throughout the day.
Imagery from satellite depicts a mix of stratus and fog, and at
summit- levels, it has been in and out of cloud. After sunrise,
the fog and clouds will lift, yielding mostly sunny skies.
Expect temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s today with
relatively light winds out of the west to southwest. After
sunset, fair weather cumulus should dissipate and winds slacken.

Radiational cooling is expected, but southwest winds will pick
up in New York tonight under some gradient flow. Sheltered
locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could still
eke out upper 40s, but it will be a bit warmer than tonight.
Some fog could develop in eastern Vermont, but is not really
expected in northern New York due to the increasing flow. Weak
return flow will bring subtly warmer air that should climb up
into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Later in the day, a reinforcing
cold front will bring increasing rain chances into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...A weak cold front will make steady but slow
progress across the North Country Saturday night through Sunday.
Based on the latest guidance, scattered showers are expected near
the International Border by midnight with showers slowly drifting
southward as the front moves through the North Country. With the
parent low of this feature well removed to the north near James Bay,
very little surface convergence along the frontal boundary is
expected. This should yield decreasing areal coverage in showers
during the pre- dawn hours before areal coverage increases by late
morning/early afternoon as some shallow instability develops ahead
of the frontal boundary. Equilibrium levels will likely be too low
to support any thunderstorms which should keep rainfall rates low.
By Sunday evening, shower activity will wane with the loss of
diurnal heating while the front finally begins to shift south of our
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...Quiet weather is expected for the start of
the work week with surface high pressure over the area. However, the
overall weather pattern both at the surface and aloft will begin to
undergo change throughout the day Monday into Tuesday. The Bermuda
high over the western Atlantic is expected to shift westward while a
deepening trough will begin to take shape across the central US.
This change in weather pattern could potentially be setting us up
for another period of wet weather for the second half of the week.
The Bermuda high should help lift the cold front that moves through
the region this weekend back northward as a warm front. In addition,
a strengthening mid-level jet will develop in response to the
deepening trough across the central US. There will be a sweet spot
somewhere in New England that is able to interact with a tropical
like air mass while also interacting with increasing upper level
support. Where this will be remains a mystery at this time but is
something we will be watching closely as several deterministic runs
of the GFS and CMC have shown the precipitation axis focused over
Vermont. Rainfall amounts don`t look to be anything excessive with a
widespread 0.5" to 1.5" possible but convective elements will be
possible along the frontal boundary so localized amounts could be
higher. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Quiet aviation conditions are expected
with light northwest or lake driven winds at 4 to 8 knots. Fair
weather cumulus with bases between 5000-7000 ft agl expected
this afternoon. Winds will subside after 23z and come light or
terrain driven. Despite continued flow of 10 to 15 knots around
500 ft agl, KSLK fogged in overnight. Given tonight may be a
persistence forecast, but with less wind over Vermont, decided
to depict 2SM BR for now at KMPV and KSLK after 09z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Haynes