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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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845 FXUS61 KBTV 191430 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1030 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very pleasant weather conditions will prevail today and much of tomorrow with seasonable temperatures. A front will approach from the north Saturday night and early Sunday, but will wash out. This will produce only isolated to scattered shower activity with the highest chances along the international border before reinforcing the region with more dry and seasonable weather. A series of weather disturbances will bring increasing rain chances for the later half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1028 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions are pervasive with some fair weather cumulus across the North Country. No significant changes were necessary with a beautiful summer day unfolding. Previous discussion...It has been a pleasant night with temperatures in the mid 40s to 50s across most of the region. Weather conditions will remain pleasant throughout the day. Imagery from satellite depicts a mix of stratus and fog, and at summit- levels, it has been in and out of cloud. After sunrise, the fog and clouds will lift, yielding mostly sunny skies. Expect temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s today with relatively light winds out of the west to southwest. After sunset, fair weather cumulus should dissipate and winds slacken. Radiational cooling is expected, but southwest winds will pick up in New York tonight under some gradient flow. Sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could still eke out upper 40s, but it will be a bit warmer than tonight. Some fog could develop in eastern Vermont, but is not really expected in northern New York due to the increasing flow. Weak return flow will bring subtly warmer air that should climb up into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Later in the day, a reinforcing cold front will bring increasing rain chances into the evening. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 AM EDT Friday...A weak cold front will make steady but slow progress across the North Country Saturday night through Sunday. Based on the latest guidance, scattered showers are expected near the International Border by midnight with showers slowly drifting southward as the front moves through the North Country. With the parent low of this feature well removed to the north near James Bay, very little surface convergence along the frontal boundary is expected. This should yield decreasing areal coverage in showers during the pre- dawn hours before areal coverage increases by late morning/early afternoon as some shallow instability develops ahead of the frontal boundary. Equilibrium levels will likely be too low to support any thunderstorms which should keep rainfall rates low. By Sunday evening, shower activity will wane with the loss of diurnal heating while the front finally begins to shift south of our forecast area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Friday...Quiet weather is expected for the start of the work week with surface high pressure over the area. However, the overall weather pattern both at the surface and aloft will begin to undergo change throughout the day Monday into Tuesday. The Bermuda high over the western Atlantic is expected to shift westward while a deepening trough will begin to take shape across the central US. This change in weather pattern could potentially be setting us up for another period of wet weather for the second half of the week. The Bermuda high should help lift the cold front that moves through the region this weekend back northward as a warm front. In addition, a strengthening mid-level jet will develop in response to the deepening trough across the central US. There will be a sweet spot somewhere in New England that is able to interact with a tropical like air mass while also interacting with increasing upper level support. Where this will be remains a mystery at this time but is something we will be watching closely as several deterministic runs of the GFS and CMC have shown the precipitation axis focused over Vermont. Rainfall amounts don`t look to be anything excessive with a widespread 0.5" to 1.5" possible but convective elements will be possible along the frontal boundary so localized amounts could be higher. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Quiet aviation conditions are expected with light northwest or lake driven winds at 4 to 8 knots. Fair weather cumulus with bases between 5000-7000 ft agl expected this afternoon. Winds will subside after 23z and come light or terrain driven. Despite continued flow of 10 to 15 knots around 500 ft agl, KSLK fogged in overnight. Given tonight may be a persistence forecast, but with less wind over Vermont, decided to depict 2SM BR for now at KMPV and KSLK after 09z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Boyd/Haynes SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Haynes