![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
247 FXUS61 KBTV 070538 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 138 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry weather will start off the week, though an isolated shower is possible tomorrow. The heat and humidity will remain in place as well. A cold front will approach from the west, bringing a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 138 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather will prevail through the overnight hours with skies mainly clear and dense river valley fog developing, mainly across VT. Humidity will remain high with lows in the 60s to low 70s and dewpoints just a degree or two below. Drier weather returns for Sunday but there will be a weak shortwave trough passing to the north of the region and that could set off a shower or two across northern areas. The heat will continue for Sunday with highs in the 80s again, but dew points will drop off slightly into the 60s. Patchy fog looks to develop Sunday night as well, mainly during the 06-12Z time frame. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 532 PM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure moves overhead on Monday, and recent cold front passage (Sat) brings in drier air at the surface and aloft, thus it should be sunny and very warm again. Decent surface heating should mix drier air to the surface thus it should be very warm but dry. Highs in the M80s-L90s. Surface high shifting east Monday night allowing return flow to bring an increase in moisture at all levels that have been plaguing the Tristate and Mid-Atlantic for some time, thus increasing dewpoints with lows in the 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 532 PM EDT Saturday...Bermuda High offshore and northern stream disturbance moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday will continue the SSW warm and increasingly humid airmass into our region. Ensemble PWATs show 1.5- 1.75 inches across our area with 1.75-2 inches across SNE and Hudson Vly southward with over 2 inches from NYC southward. Deterministic models have higher values and advect some of these higher PWATS just ahead of approving northern stream system. There is some higher level moisture from Beryl getting entrained along the approaching frontal boundary, but the main moisture source is locally grown with PWATS greater than 90th percentile across our area with rising warm cloud depth layers for likely efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms. The big question is how much activity, timing and is there more than one round? Unfortunately, the picture isn`t very clear but the general consensus is daytime heating, instability and likely position of a pre-frontal trof across NY will be a focus of shower/t-storms with mid-level energy moving across the area as well. The mid-low level flow appears nearly parallel to the boundary thus likely looking at potential training showers/t-storms while the mid-level trof continues to lift ENE for the boundary to slowly push across NY-VT late Tuesday-Tuesday night and perhaps be east of area by Wed AM. At this time...a general 1/2-1 inch with localized training of 2+ inches not out of the question. WPC has the area in Marginal risk attm and feel that is justified. Still under somewhat cyclonic flow on Wednesday with PWATS still 1.25 and higher and another weak shortwave and secondary cold front pushing through for another round of showers and possible thunder...esp southern areas. While all of this is happening, the upper level Bermuda High is strengthening thus the second frontal boundary that passes Wed is never too far away and lies across eastern and southern New England so can`t rule out shower threat, mainly south on Thursday while high pressure tries to make progress across the northern tier. As we get into Thu Ngt-Friday...the mid-level energy of what was Beryl gets lifted and captured into the general trofiness across the Great Lakes and Ms Rvr Vly. The weak surface reflection moves into the Ms Rvr Vly and Ohio Rvr Vly and then eventually across the northeast as a possible weak surface wave. Meanwhile, the strengthening Bermuda High begins to push the previous cold front as a warm front with the main story being rich moisture (PWATS 1.75-2+ inches) across SNE and mid-Atlantic advecting back towards our area. Will these two identities move across the area separate or will they interact for more organized rounds of rain and heavy rain showers. Still too early but worth to monitor closely. At the very least it looks showery and wet for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Outside of IFR fog at KMPV, KEFK, and possibly at KSLK overnight through 11-13Z, VFR conditions will prevail with mainly clear skies overnight trending to FEW-SCT fair weather cumulus during the day. Light and variable winds will trend southwesterly at 4-8kts from midday through the afternoon, with the exception being at KPBG where the wind direction will be more southeasterly due to the lake breeze. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff/Myskowski SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Lahiff