154
FXUS61 KBTV 120819
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
419 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slight chances for some showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Saturday. Sunday will see the beginning of a stretch of
drier, but hotter conditions into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...A weak surface high is trying to build in
today but, some lingering moisture from a stalled front along the
eastern seaboard will still provide the fuel for a couple showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures today will be in the
upper 70s to mid 80s and dew points in the 60s for continued muggy
conditions.

Overnight, chances for showers will shift to eastern and southern VT
as a shortwave moves through southern New England. Chances for
overnight fog will continue across the northern counties due to the
saturated conditions of the last few days. Overnight, lows will be
in the 60s to low 70s.

Saturday will see another chance for some showers and thunderstorms,
though while not widespread, could impact some recent inundated
areas across central VT. If the ridge does build in a bit more,
convection hopefully remain further south in the less hard hit
regions. Highs will again be hot and muggy with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night looks to be quiet as the
upper ridge finally moves over the area leading to clear night with
overnight lows in the 60s.

Sunday will be the beginning of another round of impactful heat and
humidity as temperatures push back into the 80s and 90s in the
valleys. Experimental NWS HeatRisk continues shows moderate risk
across much of the region, highlighting the risk for people
sensitive to heat, so be sure to practice heat safety.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Friday...Southwesterly flow will move a hot and
humid air mass into the region to start next week with 925mb
temperatures peaking around 24- 28 C both Monday and Tuesday. Surface
high temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s each day with
muggy dew points in the mid-60s to lower 70s. This would result in
apparent temperatures in the mid- 80s to mid-90s. We are monitoring
the NWS HeatRisk`s orange "Moderate" level, which suggests the heat
will affect most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those
without effective cooling and adequate hydration. With the recent
flooding, we are particularly concerned about those who may
have been displaced from homes and have limited options for air
conditioning. We will continue to assess the situation today and
determine if a Heat Advisory will be needed.

There is also the potential for showers and thunderstorms each of
these days in the afternoons and evenings as rounds of short wave
energy move through the forecast area. Around midweek, a "cool"
front will bring one last push of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday before conditions dry for the remainder of the week. Highs
will fall back into the 70s and 80s for most Wednesday onward. Lows
throughout the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Primarily MVFR and VFR conditions across the
forecast area, with SLK bouncing between IFR and VFR. Stations
should trend to MVFR and IFR overnight before rebounding to VFR
after sunrise. A few locations may remain with lingering MVFR
through mid-morning before improving. Expect light and variable
winds at most sites thru the period.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...Slight chances for some showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday, with rainfall
amounts generally 0.25 of an inch or less.

Most of the mainstem rivers have crested at this point, with
several fallen below flood. The Winooski, Passumpsic, and
Lamoille basins are still experiencing moderate flood. Visit
water.noaa.gov for details on impacts for area rivers and
additional details with changes to the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Verasamy
HYDROLOGY...Team BTV