055
FXUS61 KBTV 130730
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today but
no additional flooding is anticipated at this time. Hot
temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s and muggy dew points
are expected Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday that will bring another round of rainfall to the
region. Following the frontal passage, a return of cooler and
less humid air is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...A compact upper level shortwave will move
across the region today. While the region`s atmosphere will be on a
drying trend, there will still be enough moisture to trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms, particularly in northern areas closest to
the best forcing from the shortwave. CAMs are showing ML CAPE values
around 900-1500 J/kg and shear around 40-50 knots, indicating some
marginal severe potential. Regardless of whether the scattered
storms are severe or not, heavy rainfall is a concern with
precipitable water nearing 1.50" in some spots. Flash flood guidance
is around 1.0-1.5" in an hour for central and northern Vermont as
well as some of the harder hit parts of northern New York. Highs
will be a touch above seasonable in the 80s for most.

Following the scattered precipitation, clouds will be on the decline
this evening and into tonight as surface high pressure begins to
build into the region from the Ohio Valley. While still above
seasonal averages, temperatures overnight will be slightly cooler
than they have been the past couple of nights in the upper 50s to
upper 60s. Tomorrow will be mostly dry and hot with highs in the
80s. In some portions of the Champlain Valley, apparent temperatures
could even peek into the lower 90s. A shower in the mountains is not
out of the question due to such heat and humidity, but the chances
for precipitation remain relatively low during the day tomorrow with
a weak ridge overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...A weak shortwave will slide along the
international border during this period, bringing the chance for
showers and possible daytime thunderstorms. Temperatures will once
again warm into the mid 80s to low 90s, while dewpoints will rise
into the mid 60s to around 70F. CAPE values of 1200+ J/kg will be
possible, but shear will relatively weak at only 20 kt or so. So
while scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday
afternoon, severe weather is not anticipated. Still, warm cloud
depths of 11+ kft and PWATs around 1.5 inches indicate brief heavy
rainfall will be possible. The hot and muggy conditions will also
heighten the heat risk, and heat index values look to get pretty
close to Advisory criteria (95F) in some spots. Trends will be
watched closely over the next couple of days. With ample moisture
around, both Sunday and Monday nights will be muggy and rather
uncomfortable as lows will only dip into the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...Hot and humid weather will continue into
mid week next week, along with chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Convection is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday as
a frontal system brings a series of surface troughs/fronts across
the area. Ample shear and instability both days means storms could
be on the strong side, with gusty winds the most likely threat,
along with heavy rainfall. A cold frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon will finally bring relief from the relentless humidity;
dewpoints will drop into the 50s by Thursday, making the end of the
week far more comfortable. High pressure will settle over the region
Thursday and Friday, bringing fair weather with seasonable
temperatures. Highs will be in the low 70s to low 80s, while
overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Rain is shifting north and east across
Vermont while skies clear in northern New York behind the rain.
We`re already seeing some sites fog in with IFR visibilities
and/or ceilings, including MSS, SLK, and PBG. However, there are
some clouds moving in from the west that could limit fog
development and longevity tonight. SLK looks like the best bet
for prevailing fog through at least 09Z Saturday, then have
TEMPO for it afterwards. That being said, SLK has already proved
to be a big finicky tonight and could sometimes bounce back to
VFR at times. PBG and MSS are expected to have bouncing
conditions from VFR to IFR or even somewhere in the middle with
MVFR at times. As skies continue to clear, MPV and EFK are most
likely on the Vermont side to have some IFR fog, though it is
not out of the question at BTV nor RUT. Overall expecting fog to
end by around 12Z, and winds will pick up out of the west this
afternoon only up to about 10 knots at most. There could be some
scattered showers or thunderstorms today, covered by VCSH at
this time due to the scattered and unpredictable nature of this
precipitation, and tonight will be another night prime for
valley fog.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm