368
FXUS61 KBTV 140735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures up to the lower 90s are expected today through
Tuesday along with increasing humidity. Tomorrow and Tuesday,
there could be some showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area before a cold front on Wednesday brings another
round of rainfall to the region. Following the frontal passage,
a return of cooler and less humid air is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure at the surface and weak
ridging aloft will provide dry weather and mostly sunny skies
throughout the day today with modeled 925mb temperatures reaching
21-25C. This will result in surface high temperatures peaking in the
80s F for most, with some lower 90s F possible in the lower
Connecticut River Valley. Apparent temperatures are expected to
remain below 95, though we are expecting minor to moderate levels of
heat risk. These levels primarily affect individuals sensitive to
heat, especially those without effective cooling and adequate
hydration. There could also be some Canadian wildfire smoke moving
through aloft this afternoon and evening, though we are not
expecting air quality or visibility to be impacted by this at the
surface.

An upper shortwave and associated low level jet will move into the
forecast area from the west tonight, producing some showers, gusty
winds on the mountains, increased cloud cover, and potentially a
thunderstorm or two. Highest chances for showers will be in northern
New York, and precipitation isn`t expected to exceed 0.05". Lows
will be mild in the 60s to lower 70s under increasing clouds.

Tomorrow will be even warmer than today with 925mb temps reaching up
to 23-28C as surface high pressure strengthens. Surface highs will
be in the 80s F to lower 90s F, with highest temps located in the
Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. In many spots, apparent
temperatures could reach 90+ degrees. We will continue to monitor
the potential need for a small and brief Heat Advisory for the
Champlain and Connecticut River valleys tomorrow. In addition to
heat, we are also watching the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms with precipitable water values approaching 1.75-2.00".
While there is a good amount of instability available for these
storms, they should remain garden variety as we lack the proper
shear. In terms of precipitation, we are anticipating up to a third
of an inch in rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...Any lingering showers or thunderstorms will
wind down Monday night, and expect much of the overnight will be
dry, though on the muggy side with lows in the mid 60s to around
70F. Tuesday will feature more heat and humidity; with highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints approaching or even exceeding 70F,
heat index values will be close to Heat Advisory criteria (95F), so
trends will be watched closely. Regardless, even if the heat index
remains just below 95F, it will be dangerously hot for sensitive
persons, along with those who either have no access to air
conditioning or will be working outdoors. Please make sure to take
appropriate heat precautions.

The other concern for Tuesday will be another round of showers and
thunderstorms, sparked by a weak upper disturbance quickly crossing
the region during the afternoon. CAPE will be fairly ample,
generally in the 1500 J/kg range, and shear will be better than
Monday at 30-40 kt. PWATs will be 1.50-2.0 inches and warm cloud
depths will be 11+ kft. Hence expect some storms could become
strong, and will be efficient rain makers. While cells should have
good forward motion, there are some signs that there could be
training, which will need to be monitored. Note that portions of our
region from the Champlain Valley westward are included in the latest
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC. Convection will likely
persist into the overnight hours as we`ll remain muggy and
potentially unstable. A cold front will slowly approach from the
northwest Tuesday night, and there are some model solutions that
show it may make it south of the international border sometime
overnight, which would have some implications for convective
potential on Wednesday (see long term discussing below). For now,
still anticipate that the front will remain north long enough for us
to have another uncomfortably humid night with lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...The cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday, bringing in some much needed relief from the humidity.
There are some model differences in timing of the frontal passage,
but consensus seems to bring it through during the daylight hours.
The result will be another round of showers and thunderstorms, and
once again, the main threat would be heavy rain as PWATs of 2+
inches pool ahead of the front. Training of cells still looks
possible, and warm cloud depths of 11+ kft signal that it will be
another day with efficient rainfall processes. The latest Day 4
Excessive Rainfall Outlook covers much of our region, except far
northwestern VT and the St Lawrence Valley and northwestern
Adirondacks. Drier high pressure will settle over the region in the
front`s wake, allowing dewpoints to drop back into the 50s by
Thursday. Although a few showers will be possible Thursday as an
upper trough skirts along the international border, overall expect
fair weather for the end of the week and into the weekend. Thursday
will be the coolest day of the week, with highs in the low 70s to
low 80s, while overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60. We`ll
see a gradual warming trend as we head into the weekend, and highs
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Main focus of aviation forecast tonight
will be the fog and mist developing across the valleys of the
forecast area. SLK has already started to go to IFR in
visibility and briefly ceilings. We expect MPV to join SLK in
this shortly, and other sites where this is possible will be PBG
and EFK. Elsewhere, VCFG is forecast at most. Fog will likely
end around 11-13Z. Winds light overnight will become
southwesterly for most during the day Sunday, remaining less
than 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm