636
FXUS61 KBTV 141110
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
710 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures up to the lower 90s are expected today through
Tuesday along with increasing humidity. Tomorrow and Tuesday,
there could be some showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area before a cold front on Wednesday brings another
round of rainfall to the region. Following the frontal passage,
a return of cooler and less humid air is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 AM EDT Sunday...Slight tweaks to hourly temperatures
as observations are remaining a bit cooler than originally
forecast. We should catch back up to the curve soon, though, as
the sun rises higher in the sky and allows for plenty of heating
toward our highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Otherwise, forecast is
on track for a dry day. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...High pressure at the surface and weak
ridging aloft will provide dry weather and mostly sunny skies
throughout the day today with modeled 925mb temperatures
reaching 21-25C. This will result in surface high temperatures
peaking in the 80s F for most, with some lower 90s F possible in
the lower Connecticut River Valley. Apparent temperatures are
expected to remain below 95, though we are expecting minor to
moderate levels of heat risk. These levels primarily affect
individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without
effective cooling and adequate hydration. There could also be
some Canadian wildfire smoke moving through aloft this afternoon
and evening, though we are not expecting air quality or
visibility to be impacted by this at the surface.

An upper shortwave and associated low level jet will move into the
forecast area from the west tonight, producing some showers, gusty
winds on the mountains, increased cloud cover, and potentially a
thunderstorm or two. Highest chances for showers will be in northern
New York, and precipitation isn`t expected to exceed 0.05". Lows
will be mild in the 60s to lower 70s under increasing clouds.

Tomorrow will be even warmer than today with 925mb temps reaching up
to 23-28C as surface high pressure strengthens. Surface highs will
be in the 80s F to lower 90s F, with highest temps located in the
Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. In many spots, apparent
temperatures could reach 90+ degrees. We will continue to monitor
the potential need for a small and brief Heat Advisory for the
Champlain and Connecticut River valleys tomorrow. In addition to
heat, we are also watching the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms with precipitable water values approaching 1.75-2.00".
While there is a good amount of instability available for these
storms, they should remain garden variety as we lack the proper
shear. In terms of precipitation, we are anticipating up to a third
of an inch in rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...Any lingering showers or thunderstorms will
wind down Monday night, and expect much of the overnight will be
dry, though on the muggy side with lows in the mid 60s to around
70F. Tuesday will feature more heat and humidity; with highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints approaching or even exceeding 70F,
heat index values will be close to Heat Advisory criteria (95F), so
trends will be watched closely. Regardless, even if the heat index
remains just below 95F, it will be dangerously hot for sensitive
persons, along with those who either have no access to air
conditioning or will be working outdoors. Please make sure to take
appropriate heat precautions.

The other concern for Tuesday will be another round of showers and
thunderstorms, sparked by a weak upper disturbance quickly crossing
the region during the afternoon. CAPE will be fairly ample,
generally in the 1500 J/kg range, and shear will be better than
Monday at 30-40 kt. PWATs will be 1.50-2.0 inches and warm cloud
depths will be 11+ kft. Hence expect some storms could become
strong, and will be efficient rain makers. While cells should have
good forward motion, there are some signs that there could be
training, which will need to be monitored. Note that portions of our
region from the Champlain Valley westward are included in the latest
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC. Convection will likely
persist into the overnight hours as we`ll remain muggy and
potentially unstable. A cold front will slowly approach from the
northwest Tuesday night, and there are some model solutions that
show it may make it south of the international border sometime
overnight, which would have some implications for convective
potential on Wednesday (see long term discussing below). For now,
still anticipate that the front will remain north long enough for us
to have another uncomfortably humid night with lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...The cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday, bringing in some much needed relief from the humidity.
There are some model differences in timing of the frontal passage,
but consensus seems to bring it through during the daylight hours.
The result will be another round of showers and thunderstorms, and
once again, the main threat would be heavy rain as PWATs of 2+
inches pool ahead of the front. Training of cells still looks
possible, and warm cloud depths of 11+ kft signal that it will be
another day with efficient rainfall processes. The latest Day 4
Excessive Rainfall Outlook covers much of our region, except far
northwestern VT and the St Lawrence Valley and northwestern
Adirondacks. Drier high pressure will settle over the region in the
front`s wake, allowing dewpoints to drop back into the 50s by
Thursday. Although a few showers will be possible Thursday as an
upper trough skirts along the international border, overall expect
fair weather for the end of the week and into the weekend. Thursday
will be the coolest day of the week, with highs in the low 70s to
low 80s, while overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60. We`ll
see a gradual warming trend as we head into the weekend, and highs
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Fog at SLK and MPV will be burning off this
morning by around 13Z, then VFR conditions are anticipated for
most of the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable
today with a general southwesterly component. Around and after
09Z Monday, we may begin to see some visibilities lowering
associated with a shortwave that could bring a couple showers to
northern New York.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm