806
FXUS61 KBTV 092311
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
711 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively quiet day with a few showers along mountain ridges
today will give way to more numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. The potential for hit or miss rain will decrease heading
into the weekend, a warming trend will begin. Hotter conditions will
peak on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front, which will bring
conditions a little closer to normal after rounds of showers and
storms. Then a return to climatological afternoon pop up activity
will resume with seasonably warm conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM EDT Wednesday...Broad troughiness currently overspreads
the eastern US. There`s a weak disturbance embedded within cyclonic
flow lifting up into our region. However, surface high pressure and
plenty of mid-level dry air is in place. The best the atmosphere can
offer today will be a few showers over the mountain tops. A mid-
level inversion should preclude thunder. Temperatures have been warm
in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and conditions marginally humid with
low to mid 60s dewpoints. Tonight, scattered cloud cover may inhibit
fog, but last night featured similar conditions and still managed
patchy fog. Surface dewpoints will continue to climb with very light
winds. Even though we`re a little removed from rain, conditions
appear favorable for fog development outside cloud cover. A
seasonably warm night in the upper 50s in sheltered hollows and
upper 60s across the broader valleys is expected, tonight.

On Thursday, the combination of an incoming surface trough or weak
closed low alongside building high pressure in the Canadian
Maritimes will result in surface confluence over Vermont and
northern New York. There`s a vigorous upper vort on our doorstep,
but it pivots away before intruding, such that we should observe
little in the way of height falls. Showers and thunderstorms should
be able to initialize late morning or early afternoon with little
capping to put a lid on convection. Early activity should focus
across eastern Vermont, and this appears to enhance a thermal
gradient across the the Champlain Valley. Eastern Vermont will
likely remain in the low to mid 70s while areas west warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s. As lake breeze interactions initiate about
the same time as the incoming trough, broader activity will develop
mid-afternoon through the Champlain Valley. Finally, there will be
some showers and thunderstorms that track west from the St. Lawrence
Valley into northern New York that may also trigger some activity
along any outflow boundaries. Following sunset, showers will
decrease in coverage, but not end completely, while the base of the
upper trough passes overhead. HREF guidance is pinning the Northeast
Kingdom and parts of the southern Champlain Valley with at least a
10% chance of seeing more than 3 inches of rain in 6 hours. This
continues the theme of a marginal risk outlook for excessive rain.
We`ll have to monitor the potential closely, but PWATs are only
about 1.50". A sharp theta E ridge will be present across the
forecast area, but flow will fortunately increase as the day
progresses up to 20 knots. Ingredients are only marginally
conducive, but will watch closely since at least some are present.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will be quieter. Warm advection
in the mid-levels and dry air will keep activity at bay, although
not completely due to favorable positioning to the south of an upper
jet streak and marginal instability that should overcome the cap
later in the day along a remnant boundary across eastern Vermont.
Increasing thicknesses with the building ridge means we`re in for a
warming trend. Temperatures will rise close to 80 in eastern
Vermont, and generally will be lower 80s to mid 80s west of the
Greens. Any showers will conclude over Friday night with another
seasonably warm night in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...Mid/upper lvl ridge builds acrs our
cwa this weekend with mostly dry and warm conditions
anticipated. Cannot completely rule out a shower/storm acrs
central/southern sections on Sat aftn/evening as weak s/w energy
and slightly better mid lvl moisture impacts this region. Have
mention 15-25% pops for now, but minimal impacts anticipated.
Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 20-22C by 18z Sunday, supporting
highs mid 80s to lower 90s with moderate humidity values, with
dwpts in the 60s. A few localized cities in the CPV may approach
heat advisory criteria. The threat for showers/storms increase
on Monday/Tues time frame associated with mid/upper lvl trof and
cold frnt. Still some spread in the guidance with regards to
timing of this feature, but highest pops look to be on Monday
aftn/evening. Very warm temps in the 80s to near 90F with dwpts
well into the 60s to near 70F ahead of boundary wl create some
instability favorable for thunderstorm development. The upscale
growth and organization of convection as always wl depend upon
timing and interaction of instability/shear on Monday. Drier
and a little cooler wx returns for mid week with highs in the
80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms this evening
will be isolated in coverage, with most likely spot for
immediate showers or thunderstorms being MSS now through 06Z.
Elsewhere, low probability of some showers exists from 04Z to
09Z.

We continue to monitor the potential for fog/low clouds at EFK,
MPV, and SLK, 07Z-12Z. Limiting fog factors include high clouds
and no measurable precipitation in the last 24 hours. Favorable
fog factors include increased low level moisture modeled to be
trapped at surface by an inversion as well as climatological
statistics show 40-50% chances of IFR conditions at SLK and MPV
by 09Z.

Models suggest east/southeasterly flow in MPV will contribute
to potential IFR as well. Lower confidence but possible
visibility restriction exists at MSS around 09Z-11Z. If they
get a good amount of precipitation from the nearby thunderstorm,
this could increase their odds of fog development. Overall,
winds are expected to be light and variable, terrain driven
tonight for most sites.

Tomorrow, we have the potential for showers and thunderstorms
developing, beginning around 14Z-18Z and continuing through the
end of the 24 hour TAF period. Prevailing winds will be out of
the south, 10 knots or lower, though any thunderstorm could
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, lowering visibilities
below 6 miles.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Storm