544
FXUS64 KBRO 131737 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Lingering tropical moisture, moderate instability and weak forcing
will likely support some isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. PWAT values are expected to range between 1.9 to just
over 2 inches this afternoon, as CAPE values climb to 1500-2000
J/kg. The best moisture and instability looks to be concentrated
along the coast and over northern portions of the CWA, supporting
the best rain chances in these areas. Given the high moisture
values, some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rainfall, and minor flooding could be a concern if any
of these storms are slow moving and impact an area that has received
higher rainfall amounts over the past few days.

This evening, drier mid level flow will move into the region along
the western periphery of an expanding mid level ridge over the
southeastern US. With the drier air aloft and decreasing CAPE values
rain chances are expected to diminish this evening and remain near
zero through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 90s this afternoon
with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight. Reduced cloud
cover Sunday, courtesy of the drier air aloft, should allow
afternoon highs to climb to the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

500 mb high pressure, varying from the Florida Panhandle to the
northwest Gulf of Mexico, will be the dominant weather feature
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will produce
dry weather across the BRO CWFA through a majority of the period.
However, some isolated convection may return to the forecast for
Thursday and Friday as a mid-level trough develops over the Lone
Star State.

Temperature-wise, a gradual rise in daytime highs is expected,
with near normal values increasing to slightly above normal as the
period progresses. Calculated heat indices suggest that a HEAT
ADVISORY will likely not be needed on any day, and that a SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT will suffice daily for heat index values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue, with
some possibility of a brief gusty period possible. The onshore
flow will also ensure low-level moisture flow that will foster the
growth of a few low-level clouds over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the
period, as light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas
persist. High pressure over the Northern Gulf will continue to be
the main influence through the period. Some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the coastal Gulf
waters and Laguna Madre today. Rain chances are expected to diminish
this evening, and remain near zero through the remainder of the
period.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
Dominant surface high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico
will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas
along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. Neither Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory are likely
to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  79  93  79 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               94  75  94  75 /  20   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 96  78  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  77  96  76 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  82  88  81 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  78  92  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...64-Katz