471
FXUS64 KBRO 131915
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
215 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As a mid-level ridge moves the Four Corners region, more dry air
will filter into the area. As such, rain chances are expected to
decrease by a large amount to where Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley can expect to be mostly rain free through Sunday
night. Southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the
period as well, which will bring some low-level moisture to the
region, making the environment rather humid.

As for the temperatures, the low temperatures for both tonight and
tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with parts of the Lower
Rio Grande Valley close to the 80s. The high temperature for
tomorrow is expected to be in the 90s. Heat indices are expected to
around 103-109. As such, it should remain below Heat Advisory
Criteria, but perhaps a Special Weather Statement will be enough for
the heat indices tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The mid-level ridges across the Four Corners and Southeast allow
the central-CONUS 500mb trough to sag south late week into the
weekend, just enough to bring back a low chance of rain Thursday
through Saturday. POPs only top off around 15 to 20 percent,
mainly across the ranchlands and brush country, and generally
during peak heating each afternoon. High temperatures range from
near normal to slightly above normal, generally in the mid to
upper 90s, with low 100s west. Heat Indices towards 107-110
degrees are possible each afternoon, especially Wednesday through
Friday, falling shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue, with
some possibility of a brief gusty period possible. The onshore
flow will also ensure low-level moisture flow that will foster the
growth of a few low-level clouds over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Tonight through Sunday Night...High pressure over the Northern Gulf
will continue to be the primary influence over the period, thus
resulting in light to moderate winds with low to moderate seas
resulting in favorable conditions for the Lower Texas Coast are
expected to continue through Sunday night.

Monday through next Saturday...High pressure remains generally
anchored to the northern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining light to
moderate southeasterly onshore flow through the forecast period.
Expect generally favorable marine conditions with seas of 2 to 3
feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  94  78  93 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               75  94  74  94 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 79  97  78  97 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  97  76  96 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  88 /   0  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  77  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...64-Katz