Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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216 FXUS64 KBRO 080534 AAC AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tropical Storm Beryl has moved north of the Deep South Texas and the Lower Texas Coastal Waters. Tropical Storm Warnings along the Lower Texas Coast including the coastal portions and the barrier islands of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy Counties have been cancelled. Conditions will continue to improve across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Beryl is expected to intensify through tonight before making landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday morning, just slinging by our coastal waters through tonight. Convective bands have only occasionally worked inland this morning with brief moderate rainfall along the coast. Better convective bands have been limited to the Gulf waters. Convection may increase into later this afternoon and early evening, again, mainly along the coast and especially offshore, as the system strengthens back into a hurricane. An isolated waterspout or tropical funnel is possible into this evening along the coast as well. A brief rapid intensification of Beryl to a strong cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane is possible as the storm works back into more favorable conditions, away from drier air, and over very warm waters near Corpus Christi. Tropical Storm Warnings continue across coastal to island portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. At the beach, life-threatening rip currents will continue to be likely through Monday night and a Rip Current Statement is in effect. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect into tonight for run-up towards the dunes along the beaches, with most webcams and observations showing only minor impacts to this point. Narrow beaches may be impassable into this evening, with low tide expected prior to 11 PM. We will monitor water levels into high tide Monday morning to determine if any additional coastal flood statements or advisories will be needed. Expect high temperatures to spike across Deep South Texas as the system works further north and subsidence increases locally Monday, with triple digit heat nearly everywhere inland. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for most of the CWA along and east of I69C, with Heat Indices generally ranging from 109 to 114 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 After Beryl, the next feature to monitor is a tropical wave or weak trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday into Wednesday. This will likely result in isolated sea breeze convection Tuesday afternoon, increasing streamer showers mainly offshore Tuesday night, then a better round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Some brief heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday as moisture works further inland, potentially lighting up a bit more along any sea breeze. Isolated sea breeze convection is possible again Thursday through the weekend, with NBM POPs dropping off more and more each afternoon. Another hot day is expected on Tuesday, with Heat Advisories again likely needed. The rain and increased cloud cover on Wednesday will provide a brief break in the heat, with seasonal temperatures returning late week warming each day into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Light and variable winds with a mix of mid to high clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light and variable winds will continue overnight with the broad circulation associated with Beryl. Light southeast to south winds later this morning will increase and become gusty in the afternoon. Winds will become light later this evening. VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through next Sunday...Beryl is expected to continue to work north just beyond our offshore Gulf of Mexico waters, likely intensifying back into a hurricane later today. The storm is expected to work toward the middle Texas coast, making landfall early Monday. A brief rapid intensification of Beryl to a strong cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane is possible as the storm works back into more favorable conditions, away from drier air, and over very warm waters near Corpus Christi. Tropical Storm Warnings continue across nearly all coastal waters, with a Hurricane Warning across offshore waters 20 to 60 nautical miles out and north of Port Mansfield. Hazardous marine conditions will continue across coastal waters through tonight, with gradually improving conditions on Monday. More favorable marine conditions are expected Tuesday through Sunday. A tropical wave or weak trough of low pressure across the Bay of Campeche will provide an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms off the lower Texas coast Tuesday through Wednesday, with isolated streamer activity potentially continuing into late week. As with any tropical system, the convective bands this afternoon into tonight could contain torrential rainfall, very strong winds, elevated seas, little to no visibility, and waterspouts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 96 80 92 / 0 20 20 60 HARLINGEN 78 98 77 93 / 0 20 10 60 MCALLEN 81 100 80 95 / 10 10 10 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 101 79 96 / 10 10 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 82 87 / 0 20 20 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 79 91 / 0 20 10 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ150-155-170. Hurricane Warning for GMZ175. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...63-KC