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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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600 FXUS64 KBRO 091955 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 255 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 A mid to upper level ridge over northern and central Texas is expected to remain in place through the short term forecast period. Leading to subsidence aloft pushing dry air downwards towards the surface. This will keep the short term forecast mostly rain-free for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. However, there is still a slight chance of rain occurring with the seabreeze during the afternoon tomorrow. Otherwise, on the surface, the southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the short term forecast period, which will bring in low-level humidity to the region. This leads into the main topic for the short term forecast period, being the heat. The low-level humidity will cause the heat indices to go up to near Heat Advisory criteria around 110. Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties are expected to be most likely affected by the heat tomorrow. However, the conditions currently forecasted are still under the criteria for a Heat Advisory, thus a Special Weather Statement for the heat would be fine. Even into tonight and tomorrow night, heat indices remain above 80 for most of the night, but are expected to continue to slowly decrease to below 80 for the aforementioned counties. As for the actual temperatures for the short term forecast, the high temperatures are expected to be in the the upper 90s for most of the region, with the western counties more likely to tip toe into the the triple digits. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with a few places getting into the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 The persistent upper-level ridge looks to shift further east over the Mississippi River Valley through the period. A weak tropical wave looks to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, reaching Deep South Texas by Monday. This will likely foster an increase in mid-level moisture and weak forcing supporting an uptick in cloud cover. Additionally, instability and PW values are expected to increase as well, leading to a low chance for showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze Monday. As the tropical wave moves further west, rain chances are expected to decrease for the remainder of the period, though occasional sea breeze convection cant be ruled out. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s to low 100s, with a slightly upwards trend beginning trend through the period. Heat indices are expected to approach, but stay just shy of, Heat Advisory Thresholds Sunday and Monday afternoons. Heat Advisories become more likely beginning Tuesday, as heat indices appear to remain above 111 for a few hours each day, at least over the eastern portions of the CWA. A slight upward trend is also expected with the low temperatures through the period,. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s are expected, with temperatures at the higher end of the range becoming more widespread later in the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain through the TAF cycle at at all TAF sites. Light southeasterly winds are expected to continue, but there is a chance that winds could be a bit breezier, but not by much during the afternoon. Due to the low- level flow, more low-level clouds are expected to move through the region, but should not effect the ceiling categories. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Tonight through Saturday night...High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. There is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms expected for tomorrow afternoon. Sunday through next Friday...Surface high pressure looks to remain in control across the northern Gulf through the period, supporting light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas. Some streamer showers and isolated thunderstorms could be possible through the period, with the best, albeit still low, rain chances occurring Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 79 95 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 76 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 100 79 101 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 78 100 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 78 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...64