600
FXUS64 KBRO 091955
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
255 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

A mid to upper level ridge over northern and central Texas is
expected to remain in place through the short term forecast period.
Leading to subsidence aloft pushing dry air downwards towards the
surface. This will keep the short term forecast mostly rain-free for
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. However, there is still
a slight chance of rain occurring with the seabreeze during the
afternoon tomorrow. Otherwise, on the surface, the southeasterly
winds are expected to continue through the short term forecast
period, which will bring in low-level humidity to the region.

This leads into the main topic for the short term forecast period,
being the heat. The low-level humidity will cause the heat indices
to go up to near Heat Advisory criteria around 110. Brooks, Hidalgo,
Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties are expected to be most likely
affected by the heat tomorrow. However, the conditions currently
forecasted are still under the criteria for a Heat Advisory, thus a
Special Weather Statement for the heat would be fine. Even into
tonight and tomorrow night, heat indices remain above 80 for most of
the night, but are expected to continue to slowly decrease to below
80 for the aforementioned counties.

As for the actual temperatures for the short term forecast, the high
temperatures are expected to be in the the upper 90s for most of the
region, with the western counties more likely to tip toe into the
the triple digits. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow
night are expected to be in the 70s with a few places getting into
the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

The persistent upper-level ridge looks to shift further east over
the Mississippi River Valley through the period. A weak tropical
wave looks to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend, reaching Deep South Texas by Monday. This will likely
foster an increase in mid-level moisture and weak forcing
supporting an uptick in cloud cover. Additionally, instability and
PW values are expected to increase as well, leading to a low
chance for showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea
breeze Monday. As the tropical wave moves further west, rain
chances are expected to decrease for the remainder of the period,
though occasional sea breeze convection cant be ruled out.

High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s to low
100s, with a slightly upwards trend beginning trend through the
period. Heat indices are expected to approach, but stay just shy
of, Heat Advisory Thresholds Sunday and Monday afternoons. Heat
Advisories become more likely beginning Tuesday, as heat indices
appear to remain above 111 for a few hours each day, at least over
the eastern portions of the CWA. A slight upward trend is also
expected with the low temperatures through the period,. Low
temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s are expected,
with temperatures at the higher end of the range becoming more
widespread later in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain through the TAF cycle at
at all TAF sites. Light southeasterly winds are expected to
continue, but there is a chance that winds could be a bit
breezier, but not by much during the afternoon. Due to the low-
level flow, more low-level clouds are expected to move through the
region, but should not effect the ceiling categories.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to produce gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds and low to moderate seas. There is a slight chance of showers
or thunderstorms expected for tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday through next Friday...Surface high pressure looks to remain
in control across the northern Gulf through the period, supporting
light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas. Some
streamer showers and isolated thunderstorms could be possible
through the period, with the best, albeit still low, rain chances
occurring Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  95  79  95 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               76  96  76  96 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 79 100  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 100  78 100 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  83  89 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  78  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...64