947
FXUS64 KBRO 092310 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Weather in the aftermath of Beryl is still settling down. There is a
lot of residual moisture over the area with a weak frontal boundary
to our north across the CRP CWA. For tonight, ongoing daytime
convection along the coast should decrease with a weak signal
remaining over the upper valley. Models suggest a busier day on
Wednesday with the ECMWF bringing in a slug of moisture in from the
Gulf and a trough aloft between to high height areas (col) adding to
the instability. A chance of rain may linger into Wednesday night
for eastern sections. Lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s. Mostly
cloudy. Light winds. Rip risk set to decrease to moderate tonight
and low on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages:

* Day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday

* Seasonable temperatures and favorable marine conditions
  continuing through the period

Typical mid-summer (tropical) weather pattern is expected to
continue through the extended with very warm to hot temperatures,
humid conditions, and day-to-day chances for showers and
thunderstorms. With an anomalously strong 597 dam heat dome over the
western U.S. and another anomalously strong 597-603 dam sub-tropical
heat ridge just off the coast of the eastern U.S., weakness in the
500 mb height pattern will continue into Friday over Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley.

Copious amounts of residual moisture left behind from Tropical
Cyclone (TC) Beryl coupled with onshore/sea breeze interaction
will keep the prospects of day-to-day chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the region in play through Friday with the best
chance and greatest coverage being on Thursday. Have categorical
chances (50-60%) over the region on Thursday and 30-40% chances on
Friday. Once again, showers and thunderstorms can take place
anytime. However, the best window will be during the afternoon
into the evening hours or during the time of peak sfc based
differential heating. Any showers and thunderstorms that form will
have the capabilities of producing heavy (torrential) rainfall
given the very high precipitable water (PWAT) values. Both the GFS
and NAM models are indicating PWATs to range between 2-2.50
inches, which is +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal.

On Saturday, ridging over the region will strengthen. As a result,
rain chances decrease and shift east (greatest chance offshore).
That said, only expecting an isolated chance for a shower or
thunderstorm during the day on Saturday. Quiescent weather
conditions look to continue Sunday through early next week due to
enough subsidence in place from the aforementioned ridge in place
overhead. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonable through the
extended, though we can see a slight uptick in temperatures over the
weekend into early next week as the aforementioned ridge
returns/strengthens over the region. High temperatures are progged
to be in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday increasing into the mid-
upper 90s (with a few 100s especially along/west of I-69C) over the
weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Earlier
convection has dissipated, but could still see a spotty shower or
two, mainly over the next few hours. After midnight rain and
thunderstorm chances will increase into Wednesday. Any shower or
thunderstorm activity will lead to brief lowering of ceilings and
visibly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night... Quiet marine weather in the short
term with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Periodic
isolated to scattered showers and rumbles still possible.
Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances

Thursday through Tuesday....Outside of the threat/risk for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, favorable marine
conditions are expected through the long-term period with light
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  79  91 /  10  60  30  60
HARLINGEN               75  93  75  91 /   0  60  20  60
MCALLEN                 79  95  78  93 /  10  60  10  60
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  96  77  93 /  20  50  20  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  80  87 /  10  50  30  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  90  77  90 /  10  60  20  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68