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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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781 FXUS64 KBRO 100548 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Weather in the aftermath of Beryl is still settling down. There is a lot of residual moisture over the area with a weak frontal boundary to our north across the CRP CWA. For tonight, ongoing daytime convection along the coast should decrease with a weak signal remaining over the upper valley. Models suggest a busier day on Wednesday with the ECMWF bringing in a slug of moisture in from the Gulf and a trough aloft between to high height areas (col) adding to the instability. A chance of rain may linger into Wednesday night for eastern sections. Lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s. Mostly cloudy. Light winds. Rip risk set to decrease to moderate tonight and low on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Key Messages: * Day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday * Seasonable temperatures and favorable marine conditions continuing through the period Typical mid-summer (tropical) weather pattern is expected to continue through the extended with very warm to hot temperatures, humid conditions, and day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms. With an anomalously strong 597 dam heat dome over the western U.S. and another anomalously strong 597-603 dam sub-tropical heat ridge just off the coast of the eastern U.S., weakness in the 500 mb height pattern will continue into Friday over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Copious amounts of residual moisture left behind from Tropical Cyclone (TC) Beryl coupled with onshore/sea breeze interaction will keep the prospects of day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region in play through Friday with the best chance and greatest coverage being on Thursday. Have categorical chances (50-60%) over the region on Thursday and 30-40% chances on Friday. Once again, showers and thunderstorms can take place anytime. However, the best window will be during the afternoon into the evening hours or during the time of peak sfc based differential heating. Any showers and thunderstorms that form will have the capabilities of producing heavy (torrential) rainfall given the very high precipitable water (PWAT) values. Both the GFS and NAM models are indicating PWATs to range between 2-2.50 inches, which is +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. On Saturday, ridging over the region will strengthen. As a result, rain chances decrease and shift east (greatest chance offshore). That said, only expecting an isolated chance for a shower or thunderstorm during the day on Saturday. Quiescent weather conditions look to continue Sunday through early next week due to enough subsidence in place from the aforementioned ridge in place overhead. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonable through the extended, though we can see a slight uptick in temperatures over the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned ridge returns/strengthens over the region. High temperatures are progged to be in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday increasing into the mid- upper 90s (with a few 100s especially along/west of I-69C) over the weekend through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions are occurring at all 3 regional airports and should persist through 15Z and most likely through the much of the day. An increase in clouds with VFR ceilings around 4000 feet developing after 15Z with showers and thunderstorms expected for the3 late morning and afternoon hours. Scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon with gusty winds, heavy rainfall and MVFR ceilings and visibility will accompany the convection. Convection wanes east to west and should diminish at sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night... Quiet marine weather in the short term with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Periodic isolated to scattered showers and rumbles still possible. Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Thursday through Tuesday....Outside of the threat/risk for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, favorable marine conditions are expected through the long-term period with light winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 91 78 94 / 30 60 20 40 HARLINGEN 75 91 75 94 / 20 60 20 40 MCALLEN 78 93 78 95 / 10 60 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 93 76 95 / 20 60 20 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 81 89 / 30 50 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 93 / 20 50 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...59-GB