309
FXUS64 KBRO 111730
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The KBRO upper air sounding from Wednesday evening yielded a
precipitable water value of 2.03 inches in the atmospheric column.
This deeper tropical moisture, combined with daytime heating and
weakness at the 500 mb level, will produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through the period. An aspect of the
convection to watch for will be the possibility of flood
advisories or even flash flood warnings, as movement of the
convection has been relatively slow over the past couple of days.
Indeed, the aforementioned upper air sounding indicated winds of
generally 5 to 10 knots from the surface up to around 25k feet.

Meanwhile, temperature-wise, below normal values are anticipated due
to the expected showers and thunderstorms and associated cloud
cover. Calculated heat indices do not suggest the need for a HEAT

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Lingering tropical moisture could support isolated showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday. Beyond that, rain chances
remain near zero through the middle of next week as a building
upper-level ridge over the southeastern US and drier mid-level
flow takes hold. As cloud cover decreases through the period and
sustained southeasterly surface flow continues, a gradual warming
pattern is expected through the long term period. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Saturday, are expected to
climb to the upper 90s to just above 100 by mid week. Heat
Advisories could be needed for eastern portions of Deep South
Texas by early next week, with greater likelihoods by mid week.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 70s to low
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The latest radar imagery depicts increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA
across the region this afternoon, including the terminals.
Periods of reduced visibility due to locally heavy rain, gusty
winds, and occasional lightning will be the main threats through
the early evening hours. Convection should wane with the loss of
daytime heating and result in rain-free conditions overnight, but
additional activity may develop by mid to late morning tomorrow.
Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions through the forecast
period outside of any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Today through Friday...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds
around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas of 2 feet with
a period of 5 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Light to moderate winds
and low to moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast
through the period with high pressure in control over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor
Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed.

Friday night through Wednesday...Broad high pressure over the
Northern Gulf will support generally favorable marine conditions
through the long term period. Light to moderate southeasterly to
southerly winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  79  93  79 /  70  20  40  10
HARLINGEN               89  74  91  75 /  70  20  40  10
MCALLEN                 92  78  93  79 /  70  40  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  77  93  77 /  70  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  88  82 /  60  20  30  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  77  91  79 /  70  20  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...22-Garcia