433
FXUS64 KBRO 141920
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
220 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Mid-level ridge will continue to be the main focus of the short term
forecast period. While expecting mostly rain-free conditions due to
drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The onshore flow
will help bring in some low-level moisture that will help to
increase the humidity. However, the PWATs are expected to drop as
the short term forecast period progress. As stated before, mostly
rain-free does not mean that rogue showers and thunderstorms cannot
develop.

As for temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow
night are expected to be in the 70s, with parts of the Lower Rio
Grande Valley approaching the 80s. On the other hand, the high
temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the 90s. Heat
indices are also expected to be in the range of 102-105. As such a
Heat Advisory is not expected at this time, but a Special Weather
Statement for the elevated heat indices might be issued later.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Normal Temperatures
- Increasing rain chances Thursday-Weekend

The amplified trough-ridge pattern across the CONUS becomes even
more amplified the latter half of next week as the Western U.S.
500mb ridge builds well north into Canada. This amplification kicks
a strong shortwave south along on the western side of a Midwest mid-
level trough digging the base of the trough to the NW Gulf of Mexico
Friday. A second shortwave amplifies the trough farther southwest
through Texas Sunday. At the surface, a cold front drops into
Central Texas Thursday with latest model suite maintaining some
continuity boundary over Texas Friday and Saturday with a further
nudge southwest through Texas Sunday. Model trends increase rain
chances Thursday-Sunday as low-level moisture, weak forcing and
daytime instability south of the front support rain chances near
climatological normals of 20-30 percent each afternoon.

Model guidance maintains a steady state near normal temperature
range through the next weekend with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s, with heat indices remaining below Heat Advisory criteria.
Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last through the TAF period at all
TAF sites. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to
continue through the period. A few low-level clouds are possible
with the onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Surface high pressure over the US
southeast will provide favorable marine conditions through Monday
night. With the light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to
moderate seas, there are currently no expected adverse or hazardous
conditions expected.

Tuesday through Sunday...Surface high pressure to remain anchored
over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Sunday. A weak to occasional
moderate pressure gradient supports light to moderate winds and
slight seas. Isolated showers/Thunderstorms Tuesday- Thursday
become scattered Friday-Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  94  79  94 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               74  95  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  98  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  82  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  92  78  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...64-Katz