427
FXUS64 KBRO 120914
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
414 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

PWATs are expected to remain above 2 this afternoon as deep
tropical moisture remains in the area. Weak forcing and ample
instability could the development of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Given the high
PWAT values, some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances are expected to decrease overnight as the atmosphere
becomes more stable, though some streamer showers could be possible
along the coast Saturday morning. Some lingering tropical moisture
Saturday could support some isolated showers and thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon.

The anticipated cloud cover should help keep temperatures around
normal today, with high temperatures expected to be in the low 90s.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, with afternoon
highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

500 mb high pressure, initially centered over the Florida
Panhandle, will ease west and become recentered over the northwest
Gulf of Mexico during the period, becoming an even more dominant
weather feature for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
This will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA, giving the area
a chance to dry out after rains from Alberto and post-Beryl.

Temperature-wise, a gradual rise in daytime highs is expected,
with near normal values increasing to slightly above normal as the
period progresses. Calculated heat indices suggest that a HEAT
ADVISORY may be needed for portions of the region on Wednesday,
with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT sufficing for the remainder of
the daylight hours.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
TAF period. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop Friday afternoon, which could briefly drop conditions to
MVFR. Winds will remain light out of the southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

High pressure over the Northern Gulf will support light to moderate
southeasterly winds and slight seas through the short term period.
Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through Saturday, with the highest concentrations expected
this afternoon.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Persistent high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will
produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the
Lower Texas Coast through the period. Neither Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  79  93  79 /  30  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               92  76  94  75 /  40  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 93  79  96  79 /  40  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  78  96  77 /  40  30  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  88  82 /  20  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  79  91  78 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ellzey-60
LONG TERM....Tomaselli-66
UPPER AIR/MESO...Kamba