144
FXUS64 KBRO 130556 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery depict another round of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across Deep South
Texas, which should continue through the early evening hours.
Similar to previous days, this unsettled weather is due to the
combination of high moisture content, weak forcing for ascent, and
diurnal instability. The main threats with any thunderstorms and/or
robust showers are locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Minor flooding issues may arise should any slow-moving thunderstorms
develop through the evening hours, especially over areas that have
received several inches of rainfall over the past few days.

Showers and thunderstorms should come to an end this evening with
the loss of daytime heating, but may linger over the Gulf waters
tonight into tomorrow morning. Precipitation chances will increase
once again by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon hours, although there should be less coverage than
previous days. The highest PoPs will be confined mainly along the
coast and near the Northern Ranchlands tomorrow.

Otherwise, mild and humid nights with low temperatures mostly in
the mid 70s to low 80s is expected tonight. Partly cloudy skies
and lingering precipitation chances tomorrow will result in high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, near normal temperatures for
mid July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The mid-level ridge across the Southeast works back towards the
northern Gulf into late next week before the ridge across the Four
Corners strengthens, leading to a short-lived weakness or lower
pressure near the lower Texas coast as the central-CONUS 500mb
trough sags south between the ridges. Rain chances generally stay
below 10 percent through the week, barely increasing Thursday into
Friday toward 15 or maybe 20 percent within that weaker pressure or
southern edge of the trough, mainly across the ranchlands and brush
country. High temperatures range from near normal to slightly above
normal, generally in the mid to upper 90s, with a few 100s working
into the RGV by mid to late week. Heat Indices towards 107-110
degrees are possible each afternoon, especially Thursday, at the
moment falling just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some
brief showers or thunderstorms could develop Saturday afternoon,
however the best rain chances look to remain north of all of the
TAF sites. While impacts can`t be ruled out, confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain light to
moderate out of the southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...Light to moderate southeast
winds and low seas will prevail through the short term period as
high pressure remains over the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
Saturday evening, which may result in higher winds and seas.

Sunday through next Friday...High pressure remains generally
anchored to the northern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining light to
moderate southeasterly onshore flow through the forecast period.
Expect generally favorable marine conditions with seas of 2 to 3
feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  94  78  95 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               75  95  75  95 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 79  97  78  98 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  97  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  81  88 /   0  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  78  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE