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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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631 FXUS64 KBRO 142306 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 606 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Mid-level ridge will continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast period. While expecting mostly rain-free conditions due to drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The onshore flow will help bring in some low-level moisture that will help to increase the humidity. However, the PWATs are expected to drop as the short term forecast period progress. As stated before, mostly rain-free does not mean that rogue showers and thunderstorms cannot develop. As for temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s, with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley approaching the 80s. On the other hand, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the 90s. Heat indices are also expected to be in the range of 102-105. As such a Heat Advisory is not expected at this time, but a Special Weather Statement for the elevated heat indices might be issued later. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Key Messages: - Normal Temperatures - Increasing rain chances Thursday-Weekend The amplified trough-ridge pattern across the CONUS becomes even more amplified the latter half of next week as the Western U.S. 500mb ridge builds well north into Canada. This amplification kicks a strong shortwave south along on the western side of a Midwest mid- level trough digging the base of the trough to the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday. A second shortwave amplifies the trough farther southwest through Texas Sunday. At the surface, a cold front drops into Central Texas Thursday with latest model suite maintaining some continuity boundary over Texas Friday and Saturday with a further nudge southwest through Texas Sunday. Model trends increase rain chances Thursday-Sunday as low-level moisture, weak forcing and daytime instability south of the front support rain chances near climatological normals of 20-30 percent each afternoon. Model guidance maintains a steady state near normal temperature range through the next weekend with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all aerodromes through the TAF period. Light southeasterly winds will continue into tonight. Monday afternoon, gustier conditions with gusts to around 20 kt are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Tonight through Monday Night...Surface high pressure over the US southeast will provide favorable marine conditions through Monday night. With the light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas, there are currently no expected adverse or hazardous conditions expected. Tuesday through Sunday...Surface high pressure to remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Sunday. A weak to occasional moderate pressure gradient supports light to moderate winds and slight seas. Isolated showers/Thunderstorms Tuesday- Thursday become scattered Friday-Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 94 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 77 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 82 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 LONG TERM....59 AVIATION...68