272
FXUS64 KBRO 071932
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Beryl is expected to intensify through tonight before making
landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday morning, just
slinging by our coastal waters through tonight. Convective bands
have only occasionally worked inland this morning with brief
moderate rainfall along the coast. Better convective bands have
been limited to the Gulf waters. Convection may increase into
later this afternoon and early evening, again, mainly along the
coast and especially offshore, as the system strengthens back into
a hurricane. An isolated waterspout or tropical funnel is
possible into this evening along the coast as well. A brief rapid
intensification of Beryl to a strong cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane is
possible as the storm works back into more favorable conditions,
away from drier air, and over very warm waters near Corpus
Christi. Tropical Storm Warnings continue across coastal to island
portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties.

At the beach, life-threatening rip currents will continue to be
likely through Monday night and a Rip Current Statement is in
effect. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect into tonight for
run-up towards the dunes along the beaches, with most webcams and
observations showing only minor impacts to this point. Narrow
beaches may be impassable into this evening, with low tide
expected prior to 11 PM. We will monitor water levels into high
tide Monday morning to determine if any additional coastal flood
statements or advisories will be needed.

Expect high temperatures to spike across Deep South Texas as the
system works further north and subsidence increases locally Monday,
with triple digit heat nearly everywhere inland. Heat Advisories
will likely be needed for most of the CWA along and east of I69C,
with Heat Indices generally ranging from 109 to 114 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

After Beryl, the next feature to monitor is a tropical wave or
weak trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will likely result in isolated sea breeze
convection Tuesday afternoon, increasing streamer showers mainly
offshore Tuesday night, then a better round of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Some
brief heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday as moisture works
further inland, potentially lighting up a bit more along any sea
breeze. Isolated sea breeze convection is possible again Thursday
through the weekend, with NBM POPs dropping off more and more each
afternoon.

Another hot day is expected on Tuesday, with Heat Advisories
again likely needed. The rain and increased cloud cover on
Wednesday will provide a brief break in the heat, with seasonal
temperatures returning late week warming each day into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rainbands from Beryl ongoing. AWW out for KBRO until 6 PM for
cloud to ground lightning and excessive rainfall in tropical
convection. Breezy to strong and gusty northwest winds,
especially near the coast. Conditions are VFR except MVFR at
KBRO. That pattern should continue with MVFR ceilings in heavier
showers/tstorms. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will
continue today, transitioning to more of a shower situation
tonight. Northwest winds will shift to south and weaken late
tonight. Plenty of mid and upper clouds will remain regardless of
low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today through next Sunday...Beryl is expected to continue to work
north just beyond our offshore Gulf of Mexico waters, likely
intensifying back into a hurricane later today. The storm is
expected to work toward the middle Texas coast, making landfall
early Monday. A brief rapid intensification of Beryl to a strong
cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane is possible as the storm works back into
more favorable conditions, away from drier air, and over very warm
waters near Corpus Christi. Tropical Storm Warnings continue
across nearly all coastal waters, with a Hurricane Warning across
offshore waters 20 to 60 nautical miles out and north of Port
Mansfield.

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across coastal waters
through tonight, with gradually improving conditions on Monday.
More favorable marine conditions are expected Tuesday through
Sunday. A tropical wave or weak trough of low pressure across the
Bay of Campeche will provide an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms off the lower Texas coast Tuesday through Wednesday,
with isolated streamer activity potentially continuing into late
week.

As with any tropical system, the convective bands this afternoon
into tonight could contain torrential rainfall, very strong winds,
elevated seas, little to no visibility, and waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  96  82  96 /  40  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               77 100  78  98 /  30  20   0  20
MCALLEN                 80 103  81 100 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         80 102  80 101 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  90  83  89 /  50  20   0  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  96  80  93 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...54-BHM