Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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182 FXUS64 KBRO 020504 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An upper-level ridge over Northeast Texas will remain the dominate feature as it shift further east through the period. Broad subsidence associated with this ridge and relatively dry mid levels should keep rain chances near zero, once this current batch of convection clears out later this afternoon. At the surface, winds are expected to shift to a more southerly to south-southeasterly direction, facilitating the transport of additional low-level moisture and warm air to the region. High temperatures Tuesday should range from the mid 90s to around 100. Heat indices are likely to peak around 110 Tuesday afternoon, remaining just below criteria for Heat Advisories though Special Weather Statements may still be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for the 4th of July holiday week. - There remains high uncertainty on the track and intensity forecast of Hurricane Beryl beyond 5 days. It is too early to determine whether there will be any impacts to Deep South Texas at this time. - A credible source of information for updates is hurricanes.gov. Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of mid/upper level ridging through the end of the 4th of July holiday week, which will maintain near to slightly above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation chances. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated dew points, which will result in heat indices ranging from around 100 to 111 degrees each afternoon. For anyone spending a prolonged time outdoors over the next few days, make sure you are taking the proper precautions against the heat such as staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade. While you enjoy the Independence Day activities and time away from work, make sure you are also checking back for updates on Hurricane Beryl, which is currently moving west-northwestward from the southern Windward Islands. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Beryl is expected to continue to track towards the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday and move into the Bay of Campeche late Friday into Saturday. This could result in a high risk of rip currents and a potential for coastal flooding as seas increase over the Gulf of Mexico. There is still high uncertainty on the track and intensity of Hurricane Beryl beyond Days 3-5, especially as it encounters increased wind shear over the next few days. That being said, we should have higher confidence on any impacts to Deep South Texas by Thursday or Friday, when there will be more certainty on the track of Hurricane Beryl. Long range guidance suggests precipitation chances may increase across portions of Deep South Texas as early as Saturday night or Sunday as tropical moisture content increases. Continue to check in for updates to the forecast this week! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR will generally prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light to moderate winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Convection is not anticipated and has not been included in the upcoming issuance of TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...High pressure across the Northern Gulf will support light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. Easterly winds are expected to shift more southerly tonight before shifting back to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through next Monday...Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the end of the week as high pressure builds across the Gulf. Expect light to moderate southeast winds and low seas through Friday. Heading into the weekend and early next week, there is uncertainty on whether there will be any impacts associated with Hurricane Beryl as it enters into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned to updates from credible sources of information this week like hurricanes.gov. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 95 81 95 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 84 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 80 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$