Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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062 FXUS64 KBRO 031944 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 244 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions will prevail through the 4th of July holiday across Deep South Texas. Mid/upper level ridging will remain centered over the Southeastern US with broad surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, which will maintain persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow. The combination of elevated dew points and slightly above normal temperatures will result in heat indices ranging from around 100 to 110 degrees during the afternoon hours on 4th of July. While it is not expected to reach Heat Advisory criteria, those spending time outdoors during the afternoon and early evening hours should remember to follow heat safety precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses. Remember to stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade, and wear light, loose-fitting clothing. Otherwise, mild and humid nights are expected tonight and Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast. While we are planning 4th of July holiday and weekend festivities, make sure you are also reviewing your hurricane season preparedness plans as Hurricane Beryl continues to track toward Yucatan Peninsula through the end the week and into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc. over the next several days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 This portion of the forecast is highly dependent on Hurricane Beryl. To summarize the NHC: At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. While there is still much uncertainty in the track and intensity of Beryl in the West Gulf for Friday and beyond, confidence is increasing for deep South Texas to see impacts this weekend into early next week. There is a chance now that the lower Texas coast and coastal counties may see tropical storm force winds as early as Saturday night, with the highest likihood Sunday morning. WPC places most of the CWA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall Sunday morning to Monday morning (Day5). Besides higher rain chances and the possibility of signficant total rainfall accumulation beginning Saturday through next Wednesday (4 to 7 inches with isolated locally higher amounts of 6 to 8 inches), beach and coastal conditions will deteriorate with high surf, high rip risk, and coastal flooding all in the mix. Residents of deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley should monitor the progress of Beryl through the end of the week and into the weekend. W th any tropical system possibly making landfall near Brownsville, heavy rain with possible flooding, strong winds with possible damage and power outages, isolated tornadoes, and high surf with severe beach erosion (at the local beaches) will be a distinct possibility. To what extent these things occur will be determined by the evolution of Beryl as she treks (based on the current forecast) across the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. There is a low chance (20-30%) of MVFR ceilings at BRO and HRL between 08-12Z, but should be brief. Did not include any mention of MVFR ceilings at this time due to low confidence, but may be adjusted in subsequent TAF issuances. Otherwise, south to southeast winds around 10-15 knots with gusts around 20-25 knots will prevail through the evening hours before falling below 10 knots overnight. Wind speeds should increase by mid to late morning tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...Low to moderate winds and generally favorable seas will prevail through the period as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists. Winds will be just below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions tomorrow afternoon. Friday through Monday night...East to southeast winds will become moderate to fresh with building seas in the long term. A lot will depend on the endgame of Beryl as it moves into and through the Southwest Gulf. The current forecast suggests small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf beginning as early as Saturday. Firthermore, it is reasonable to assume that marine conditions will deteriorate through Sunday, becoming dangerous Sunday and into early Monday. The forecast timing and track suggest that marine conditions may improve later Monday and especially on Tuesday as Beryl moves deeper into Texas or North Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 95 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 89 83 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....54-BHM AVIATION...22-Garcia