277
FXUS64 KBRO 081746 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1246 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Hurricane Beryl just made landfall near Matagorda, along the
Middle Texas Coast and continues to pull further away from the
region. Lingering impacts from Beryl will persist along the Lower
Texas Coast for today. At the beach, life-threatening rip currents
will be likely through Tuesday afternoon and a Rip Current
Statement remains in effect. Also, a Coastal Flood Statement has
been issued for minor run-up towards the dunes along the beaches.
We will continue to monitor water levels into high tide this
morning, which occurs at 931 AM, to determine if any additional
coastal flood statements or advisories will be needed.

Above normal high temperatures will occur today and Tuesday. Expect
high temperatures to spike today across Deep South Texas as the
Beryl moves further north and subsidence increases, with triple
digit heat nearly everywhere inland. Near record heat is possible
this afternoon. The record high temperature at McAllen-Miller
International Airport for today is 105 degrees, which a few degrees
above forecast. Heat Indices should range from 109 to 115 degrees
across much of the region this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for today, mainly along and east of I69C, from Noon until 6
PM.

The NBM indicated some isolated to scattered bands of convection
across the CWA today. Brownsville radar currently indicates a strong
convective band across the offshore Gulf waters. However, with the
increasing subsidence from the circulation from Beryl, have decided
to remove the mention of all pops for today.

Another hot day is expected on Tuesday, with Heat Advisories again
likely needed. However, high temperatures should be a few degrees
lower Tuesday afternoon due to the increase in cloud cover and
increase rain chances. A tropical wave or weak inverted 500mb trough
moving over the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. This will likely result
in isolated sea breeze convection Tuesday afternoon, increasing
streamer showers mainly offshore Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A better round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning into
the afternoon as a surge of even deeper tropical moisture arrives.
Latest guidance suggest PWATs between 2.25 to 2.40 inches will be
possible across much of Deep South Texas on Wednesday. Some brief
heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday as moisture moves further
inland, potentially developing a bit more along any sea breeze.
Isolated sea breeze convection is possible again Thursday through
the weekend, with NBM POPs dropping off more and more each
afternoon. The rain chances and increased cloud cover on Wednesday
will provide a brief break in the heat, with seasonal temperatures
returning late week warming each day into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Gusty
southeasterly winds at BRO are expected this afternoon with gusts
diminishing this evening. Light winds at HRL and MFE are expected
to strengthen slightly out of the southeast this afternoon
becoming light again this evening. Convective models continue to
show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
later this afternoon or evening, however confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Now through Sunday...Hurricane Beryl just made landfall near
Matagorda, along the Middle Texas Coast and continues to pull
further away from the region. Therefore, all Hurricane and Tropical
Storm Warnings have been discontinued along the Lower Texas Coast
and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Buoy 42020 reported west-
southwest winds around 21 knots gusting to around 27 knots with seas
slightly under 6.6 feet with a period of 10 seconds at 320 AM
CDT/0820 UTC. Adverse marine conditions will continue across coastal
waters this morning will gradually improve through the day.
Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 AM for the
nearshore Waters (0-20 NM) and through 1 PM for the offshore Gulf
Waters (20-60 NM). Brownsville radar currently indicates a few
rainbands with embedded thunderstorms over the coastal waters. A few
lingering bands of showers and thunderstorm capable of producing
wind gusts around 40 mph and heavy rain are possible mainly over the
Gulf waters this morning.

More favorable marine conditions are expected Tuesday through
Sunday. A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will provide an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms off the Lower Texas
Coast Tuesday through Wednesday, with isolated streamer activity
potentially continuing into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             97  82  96  80 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               99  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN                102  80 100  80 /  10  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        101  79 100  79 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      90  83  89  82 /  10  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     97  79  93  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>255-351-
     353>355.

      until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...60-BE