Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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447 FXUS64 KBRO 041122 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Slightly above normal temperatures will continue to persist through the short term forecast period thanks to the mid-level ridge and surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for a persistent southeasterly flow that will also bring in a good deal of low-level moisture, which in turn will lead to elevated heat indices around 105-110. While high, they are not enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Thanks to the presence of the mid-level ridge, rain chances are expected to be very low as the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere are expected to be dry. We are continuing to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl as it continue to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - Uncertainty on Beryl`s track and strength Sunday and Monday - Deteriorating Marine and Coastal conditions deteriorate last Saturday and Sunday - Slight Risk of Flash Flooding for all of Deep South Texas Sunday and Monday Friday night through Saturday...more of the same hot and humid conditions with heat indices 105-110 degrees. Tuesday through Wednesday will be questionable (but likely improving) all dependent on the future track of Hurricane Beryl. Current timing for any potential impacts continue to trend Sunday through Monday. The latest National Hurricane Track of Hurricane Beryl brings Beryl just south of Deep South Texas late Sunday into early Monday with the Cone of Uncertainty extending north of Tampico, Mexico to just south of Galveston, Texas. The track has remained consistent which helps maintain better than average confidence that the storm may remain on the current path. However, with the Tropical Cyclone (TC) still two days away from crossing the Yucatan and emerging into the Southern Mexico along with wide range of solutions among Deterministic/Ensemble and Hurricane model forecast solutions will continue to use a consensus blend for this forecast package. This will include trending towards deteriorating coastal and marine impacts including high risk of rip currents, coastal flooding, high surf, increasing winds as well as increasing rain chances Sunday and Monday. WPC continues to show a slight risk of excessive rainfall for most if not all Deep South Texas in their Day 4-5 outlooks. All of this is preliminary and highly dependent on the future track and strength of Beryl. In any case, all interests along the lower Texas coast as well as all of Deep South Texas should be preparing for heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds if the Tropical Cyclone (strong Tropical Storm or minimal Hurricane) continues on the same forecast track. Latest Rainfall amounts from WPC show 2-5 inch totals Saturday- Monday with another inch or more Tuesday-Wednesday. This could easily increase with amounts 6-8 inches or more all dependent on the track and speed of the TC if it remains on the current forecast track and how fast in moves through the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through the TAF cycle. Southeasterly winds are expected to become gusty during the late morning and through the early evening hours at all TAF sites with winds gusting up to 25 knots possible. This southeast flow will allow for moisture to move into the region that will bring in a few low-level clouds to the area as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Today through Friday...High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will allow for light to moderate southeasterly flow with low to moderate seas. Favorable conditions are expected to persist through Friday. Friday night through Wednesday...there remains a lot of uncertainty with the future track of Hurricane Beryl as it emerges over the Southern Gulf of Mexico in a projected weaken state Friday night. Marine interest along the Lower Texas coast should be prepared for deteriorating marine conditions as early as Saturday morning with the potential for tropical storm or hurricane conditions Sunday into Monday. Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Beryl approaching NE Mexico Sunday evening however there remains a wide cone of uncertainty (possible track) from Tampico, Mexico to south of Galveston, Texas. Mariners need to maintain high vigilance and monitor the latest forecast from NWS Brownsville and NHC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 81 96 79 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 83 88 83 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 93 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....59-GB AVIATION...64-Katz