Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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597 FXUS64 KBRO 051920 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 220 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The mid-level ridge across the Southeast weakens into Saturday night as a trough settles in across the central CONUS, giving Beryl an open avenue to work northward along the western Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system may be approaching hurricane strength again as it works towards the lower Texas coastal waters. In the meantime, expect a couple nice days of summer today and Saturday with generally light onshore winds and a gradually increasing chance of rain from offshore, as the outer bands and abundant tropical moisture work towards Deep South Texas. The best chance of rain will be offshore and long the coast, but generally remain isolated Saturday afternoon to scattered late Saturday night. Isolated waterspouts and tropical funnel clouds may be possible Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. At the beach, expect favorable surf conditions into Saturday, with an increasing threat of life-threatening rip currents Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Narrow beaches may start to become a little more narrow late Saturday night as well due to arriving swell as Beryl churns up the Gulf. We will continue to monitor the progress of Beryl as it emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico this evening into tonight. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several days. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The long term period begins with all eyes on Beryl in the Gulf as an intensifying tropical system, potentially a hurricane by Sunday morning. The track guidance has pushed further east over the past couple of runs, now centering closer toward Port Mansfield rather than 50 miles south of Brownsville like yesterday. Further track edits are to be expected and any wiggle of this system in its current position or intensity can easily jump guidance back west or further east over the next 24 to 36 hours especially. Beryl is expected to strengthen and has the time to do so, with favorable conditions awaiting it, including very warm waters and weak to no shear. The system may be more tightly compacted, which may limit both wind and rainfall impacts across Deep South Texas away from the center of the system. The further east Beryl goes, the less rainfall will likely fall from west to east and into the reservoirs. Because the track guidance is still sitting across all of Deep South Texas, WPC has maintained a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across all of the CWA on Monday and Tuesday, with a Slight Risk across the Rio Grande Valley on Sunday and a Moderate Risk to the west and northwest. If an easterly trend continues, this will likely pivot EROs more easterly as well. Current 7-day QPF through Friday afternoon, keeps the heaviest rainfall along and east of I69C, with around 4 to 8 inches along the coast. If Beryl does track further east, subsidence could drive much drier and warmer conditions Monday into mid-week. If Beryl drives further inland and west, it may do so as a strong Category 1 hurricane with all hazards possible across Deep South Texas, including heavy to torrential rainfall, potential flash and areal flooding, tropical storm to hurricane force winds, and tornadoes. Along the coast, regardless of an easterly or westerly nudge, expect life-threatening rip currents, high surf, storm surge of around 2 to possible 4 feet, and elevated seas offshore. As with any tropical system, the convective bands could contain torrential rainfall in a very short time, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Waterspouts are possible and stronger winds are expected along the coast and offshore. NHC has noted that Beryl may intensify further than the current forecast, likely ramping up in the final 12 hours before landfall, late Sunday night into Monday morning. Because of this, it is imperative that preparedness actions are completed by Sunday. Earliest time of arrival for tropical storm force winds is Sunday morning, with most likely time of arrival being Sunday evening. Please do not wait to prepare your home, clear your yard, or evacuate, if you feel you need to or are asked to do so. Needless to say, confidence in the long term period is rather low until we get the tropical side of things narrowed down. NBM maintains a weak onshore flow through the remainder of the week, with abundant tropical moisture along the coast. This would be a good setup for scattered daily sea breeze convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions now with a few low clouds and moderate southeast to south winds at the TAF sites. Moisture is mainly concentrated in the lower levels with scattered to broken cumulus cloud streets across the CWA. Deeper moisture associated with Beryl will begin to show up tomorrow. In the mean time, VFR conditions will dominate the rest of today and tonight. In addition to more mid and upper level cloud cover tomorrow, winds will be moderate east. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today through next Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions today into Saturday will quickly deteriorate and give way to life- threatening conditions as Beryl emerges and intensifies across the Gulf of Mexico. Elevated swells may arrive by Saturday evening. Beryl is expected to work toward the lower Texas coastal waters as a strong Category 1 hurricane by Sunday into Monday, potentially making landfall Monday morning. Current trends have moved the forecast track eastward, but also intensified the system. The National Hurricane Center noted the storm may intensify more in the final 12 hours before landfall. As with any tropical system, the convective bands could contain torrential rainfall, damaging winds, elevated seas, little to no visibility, and waterspouts. By Tuesday, most conditions will begin to gradually improve into late week with light onshore flow and streamer showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 94 80 89 / 0 10 30 70 HARLINGEN 74 95 76 91 / 0 10 20 60 MCALLEN 77 98 78 94 / 0 10 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 98 77 95 / 0 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 86 / 0 10 30 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 79 89 / 0 10 20 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...54-BHM