295
FXUS64 KBRO 082023
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
323 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

In the wake of Beryl, lingering tropical moisture will continue
to keep dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through the short term
period. Southeasterly surface flow and mostly sunny skies will
allow temperatures to climb back into the upper 90s to just above
100 Tuesday afternoon. This combination will likely allow heat
indices to reach 112-115 along and west of I-69C, likely requiring
another Heat Advisory Tuesday afternoon.

With ample low level moisture and CAPE values around 1500 J/kg,
there will be a potential for some seabreeze convection Tuesday
afternoon. PWAT values will range from 1.8 to 2, which could
allow some heavy rainfall to develop with some of these storms.

Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall to the upper 70s
to low 80s tonight and Tuesday night. With plentiful moisture
along the coast, some streamer showers could develop in the early
morning hours over the coastal waters and some of the coastal
counties.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key Messages:

* Day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday

* Seasonable temperatures and favorable marine conditions through
  the period

A typical mid-summer (tropical) weather pattern is expected through
the extended with very warm temperatures, humid conditions, and day-
to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms. Weakness in the 500mb
height pattern coupled with continued easterly (seabreeze, onshore)
flow will result in the prospects for day-to-day showers and
thunderstorms over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
through Saturday. Wednesday figures to the be day that has the
greatest chances and most widespread coverage, followed by Thursday.
Isolated to scattered low grade (20-40%) chances will exist Friday
and Saturday with the threat shifting eastward (greatest over the
coastal and offshore areas). Showers and thunderstorms can take
place anytime, but the best window will be during the afternoon
hours due to maximum sfc based differential heating. Any showers and
thunderstorms that form will have the capabilities of producing
heavy rainfall given the very high precipitable water (PWAT) values
of around 2 inches.

High temperatures will be dependent upon the timing and development
of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Wednesday and
Thursday. That said, high temperatures will be near seasonable
levels through the extended. Saturday through Monday, temperatures
will inch up slightly as ridging/subsidence strengthens over the
region. Nights will continue very warm and humid with overnight lows
in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Gusty
southeasterly winds at BRO are expected this afternoon with gusts
diminishing this evening. Light winds at HRL and MFE are expected
to strengthen slightly out of the southeast this afternoon
becoming light again this evening. Convective models continue to
show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
later this afternoon or evening, however confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...Marine conditions are expected to
continue improving through the period. Wave heights and swell
period are expected to continue falling in the wake of Beryl, with
wave heights reaching 3 ft Tuesday afternoon. Some lingering
tropical moisture could continue to support isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters through the period.

Wednesday through next Monday...Favorable marine conditions are
expected through the long-term period with light winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  96  80  94 /  10  20  20  60
HARLINGEN               77  97  76  94 /  10  20  10  60
MCALLEN                 80 101  80  96 /  10  20  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 100  78  96 /  10  10  10  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  88  82  88 /  10  10  20  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  94  79  91 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>255-351-
     353>355.

      until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...60