Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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925 FXUS64 KBRO 061733 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Tropical system Beryl will be the dominant weather feature during this portion of the total forecast. Currently a tropical storm over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and march towards the Lower Texas Coast by sunset Sunday. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for the island and coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, with a Storm Surge Watch also in effect for the shoreline of this same area. In the event that the Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch are cancelled before sunset Sunday, a Coastal Flood Warning, High Surf Warning, Wind Advisory, and High Risk of rip currents would likely be needed due to the anticipated effects of Beryl. Temperature-wise, above normal values will occur through the period. Heat indices currently do not support the expectation of a HEAT ADVISORY for today or Sunday. However, if the track of Beryl is ultimately forecast to be farther east, hotter daytime highs may occur, and thus a HEAT ADVISORY may be needed, primarily on Sunday. Finally, dry weather today and early tonight will become wetter late tonight and especially on Sunday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and generally along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor. The greatest chance for precipitation is forecast for the immediate three coastal counties and the barrier island, with a risk for lower precipitation chances all around if the track for Beryl is shifted farther east. A Flood Watch may need to be considered, but Abnormally Dry conditions within large swaths of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, per the latest drought map, may preclude that product. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The main concern in the long term will be the impacts across Deep South Texas, especially along the Lower Texas Coast, associated with the approach and passage of tropical system Beryl. Beryl is expected to strengthen as the system transverses across the western Gulf of Mexico as favorable conditions develops, including very warm waters and weak to no shear. The latest track guidance remains clustered northeast of our CWA, towards the Middle Texas Coast. This system will remain fairly tightly compacted, which should limit both wind and rainfall impacts across Deep South Texas away from the center of the system. The further east Beryl goes, the less rainfall will likely fall from west to east and into the reservoirs. WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the coast with a Marginal Risk across the central portion of the CWA Sunday night. Based on the latest forecast track, WPC has updated the Excessive Rainfall to place Kenedy County in a Marginal Risk Monday and Monday night. The current 3-day QPF through Monday afternoon, keeps the heaviest rainfall along and east of I-69E, with rainfall amounts between 1 to 3 inches, some locally higher along the coast. If Beryl does track further east, subsidence will likely lead to much drier and warmer conditions Monday into late-week. Along the coast, expect life-threatening rip currents, high surf, storm surge of around 2 to possible 4 feet, and elevated seas offshore. As with any tropical system, the convective bands could contain torrential rainfall in a very short time, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Also, waterspouts are possible and stronger winds are expected along the coast and offshore. NHC has noted that Beryl may intensify, likely ramping up in the final 12 hours before landfall, late Sunday night into Monday morning. Because of this, it is imperative that preparedness actions are completed by Sunday evening. Earliest time of arrival for tropical storm force winds is Sunday morning, with most likely time of arrival being Sunday evening. Please do not wait to prepare your home, clear your yard, or evacuate, if you feel you need to or are asked to do so. The NBM maintains a weak onshore flow through the remainder of the week, with abundant tropical moisture along the coast. This would be a good setup for scattered daily sea breeze convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions at the TAF sites now. Few to scattered low clouds for mainly eastern sections and light southeast winds. A weak sea breeze is underway near the coast. A Beryl rain band is offshore. High clouds will increase with deeper tropical moisture this afternoon through tonight. VFR ceilings will develop this evening and tonight along with increased rain chances. Though rain chances will increase tonight, and prob groups show up in the TAFs, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday, focused more heavily on Brownsville and Harlingen rather than McAllen. Breezy and gusty north to northeast winds will prevail on Sunday as Beryl moves north over the West Gulf. The track of Beryl is currently running roughly offshore parallel to the coast, minimizing the worst impacts, but any rainbands moving across will amplify the wind, rain, and lightning threat, with MVFR ceilings in local convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Today through Sunday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas of 2 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to gradually strengthen into a hurricane and track northwest towards the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate, even becoming dangerous by sunset Sunday. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles until further notice. In the event that the Hurricane Watch is cancelled, a combination of Small Craft Advisory and/or Gale Warning may be needed along the Lower Texas Coast due to the anticipated dangerous winds and seas produced by Beryl. Sunday night through Friday...Ongoing dangerous marine conditions will continue along the Lower Texas Coast through early next week due to the approach and passage of tropical system Beryl. All interests along the Lower Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Winds and seas will improve as the week progresses as Beryl moves away and the swell and churned seas subside. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 79 90 81 / 10 30 70 50 HARLINGEN 96 75 92 77 / 10 10 60 50 MCALLEN 98 78 95 80 / 10 0 30 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 76 98 79 / 0 0 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 81 / 10 40 80 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 90 78 / 10 30 70 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...54-BHM