597
FXUS64 KBRO 051920
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
220 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The mid-level ridge across the Southeast weakens into Saturday
night as a trough settles in across the central CONUS, giving
Beryl an open avenue to work northward along the western Gulf of
Mexico. By Saturday night, the system may be approaching hurricane
strength again as it works towards the lower Texas coastal waters.
In the meantime, expect a couple nice days of summer today and
Saturday with generally light onshore winds and a gradually
increasing chance of rain from offshore, as the outer bands and
abundant tropical moisture work towards Deep South Texas. The best
chance of rain will be offshore and long the coast, but generally
remain isolated Saturday afternoon to scattered late Saturday
night. Isolated waterspouts and tropical funnel clouds may be
possible Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

At the beach, expect favorable surf conditions into Saturday, with
an increasing threat of life-threatening rip currents Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. Narrow beaches may start to
become a little more narrow late Saturday night as well due to
arriving swell as Beryl churns up the Gulf.

We will continue to monitor the progress of Beryl as it emerges
back into the Gulf of Mexico this evening into tonight. Make sure
you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates,
such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center,
media stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several
days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The long term period begins with all eyes on Beryl in the Gulf as
an intensifying tropical system, potentially a hurricane by Sunday
morning. The track guidance has pushed further east over the past
couple of runs, now centering closer toward Port Mansfield rather
than 50 miles south of Brownsville like yesterday. Further track
edits are to be expected and any wiggle of this system in its
current position or intensity can easily jump guidance back west
or further east over the next 24 to 36 hours especially.

Beryl is expected to strengthen and has the time to do so, with
favorable conditions awaiting it, including very warm waters and
weak to no shear. The system may be more tightly compacted, which
may limit both wind and rainfall impacts across Deep South Texas
away from the center of the system. The further east Beryl goes,
the less rainfall will likely fall from west to east and into the
reservoirs. Because the track guidance is still sitting across all
of Deep South Texas, WPC has maintained a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall across all of the CWA on Monday and Tuesday,
with a Slight Risk across the Rio Grande Valley on Sunday and a
Moderate Risk to the west and northwest. If an easterly trend
continues, this will likely pivot EROs more easterly as well.
Current 7-day QPF through Friday afternoon, keeps the heaviest
rainfall along and east of I69C, with around 4 to 8 inches along
the coast. If Beryl does track further east, subsidence could
drive much drier and warmer conditions Monday into mid-week.

If Beryl drives further inland and west, it may do so as a strong
Category 1 hurricane with all hazards possible across Deep South
Texas, including heavy to torrential rainfall, potential flash and
areal flooding, tropical storm to hurricane force winds, and
tornadoes.

Along the coast, regardless of an easterly or westerly nudge,
expect life-threatening rip currents, high surf, storm surge of
around 2 to possible 4 feet, and elevated seas offshore. As with any
tropical system, the convective bands could contain torrential
rainfall in a very short time, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes. Waterspouts are possible and stronger winds are
expected along the coast and offshore. NHC has noted that Beryl
may intensify further than the current forecast, likely ramping up
in the final 12 hours before landfall, late Sunday night into
Monday morning. Because of this, it is imperative that
preparedness actions are completed by Sunday. Earliest time of
arrival for tropical storm force winds is Sunday morning, with
most likely time of arrival being Sunday evening. Please do not
wait to prepare your home, clear your yard, or evacuate, if you
feel you need to or are asked to do so.

Needless to say, confidence in the long term period is rather low
until we get the tropical side of things narrowed down. NBM
maintains a weak onshore flow through the remainder of the week,
with abundant tropical moisture along the coast. This would be a
good setup for scattered daily sea breeze convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions now with a few low clouds and moderate southeast
to south winds at the TAF sites. Moisture is mainly concentrated
in the lower levels with scattered to broken cumulus cloud
streets across the CWA. Deeper moisture associated with Beryl
will begin to show up tomorrow. In the mean time, VFR conditions
will dominate the rest of today and tonight. In addition to more
mid and upper level cloud cover tomorrow, winds will be moderate
east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today through next Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions
today into Saturday will quickly deteriorate and give way to
life- threatening conditions as Beryl emerges and intensifies
across the Gulf of Mexico. Elevated swells may arrive by Saturday
evening. Beryl is expected to work toward the lower Texas coastal
waters as a strong Category 1 hurricane by Sunday into Monday,
potentially making landfall Monday morning. Current trends have
moved the forecast track eastward, but also intensified the
system. The National Hurricane Center noted the storm may
intensify more in the final 12 hours before landfall. As with any
tropical system, the convective bands could contain torrential
rainfall, damaging winds, elevated seas, little to no visibility,
and waterspouts.

By Tuesday, most conditions will begin to gradually improve into
late week with light onshore flow and streamer showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  94  80  89 /   0  10  30  70
HARLINGEN               74  95  76  91 /   0  10  20  60
MCALLEN                 77  98  78  94 /   0  10  20  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  98  77  95 /   0  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  86 /   0  10  30  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  79  89 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...54-BHM