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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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453 FXUS64 KBRO 170802 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 302 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will build further north through the period as an upper-level trough over the Midwest digs south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to work its way south into Central Texas Thursday, before stalling to the north of the CWA. Recent model runs have trended downwards on rain chances Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. While ample surface moisture and instability will be present to support isolated showers and thunders along the sea breeze this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, drier mid level flow will likely limit convection through the period. As such, POPs will peak around 10-15% each afternoon, as convection looks unlikely, but not impossible. High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 90s today and Thursday, though a few areas in the western portion of the CWA may break 100 Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners late this week edges further westward into the weekend as low pressure across the central CONUS deepens and sinks south through Texas into early next week. This will gradually increase rain chances each day through the long term, beginning with increased heat of the day or sea breeze activity Friday through Sunday, and culminate with periods of showers and thunderstorms by Monday and Tuesday as tropical moisture increases. NBM POPs range from 15 to 20 percent Friday and Saturday, bump towards 20 to 30 percent on Sunday, and top off near 40 to 50 percent Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday reach slightly above normal into the upper 90s, with more seasonal or even slightly below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday due to increased cloud cover and rain chances. Heat Indices may reach toward 109 or 110 degrees Sunday and Monday due to the increasing humidity, still likely falling shy of any Heat Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. high clouds continue to stream over Deep South Texas with few to scattered lower cumulus expected during the late morning and afternoon. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today through Thursday...Favorable marine conditions are expected to continue through the short term period. Surface high pressure will remain over the Northern Gulf supporting light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds. These winds will continue to support slight seas along the Lower Texas Coast. Thursday Night through Tuesday...A weak pressure gradient is expected late this week into next week across coastal waters, with light to moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas. The chance of showers and thunderstorms gradually increases into next week, with winds and seas higher near any thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 80 95 79 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 95 76 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 97 79 98 79 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 98 76 / 10 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 92 77 / 10 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...60-BE