103
FXUS64 KBRO 141746 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

500 mb high pressure centered over the Florida Panhandle will
generally be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during
the period. Although dry weather is forecast across Deep South
Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the adjacent lower Texas coastal
waters, some very isolated convection cannot be ruled out,
especially with precipitable water values around 2 inches today
decreasing to near 1.5 inches on Monday.

Meanwhile, near normal daytime highs and overnight lows are likely.
Calculated heat index values indicate that a HEAT ADVISORY will not
be needed today nor tomorrow. Thus, will mention the heat indices in
a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A mid level ridge over the Southwest will allow a 500mb trough to
dig south towards the end of the week, supporting a surface cold
front dropping into Central Texas Thursday. The front looks to
stall to the north of the BRO CWA and remain across Central Texas
through the remainder of the period. Increased low-level moisture
and weak forcing to the south of the front could support some low-
end rain chances Thursday through Saturday. POPs top out around
15-20% each afternoon when the best instability will be present.

High temperatures look to range in the mid to upper 90s through
the period, with heat indices remaining below Heat Advisory
criteria. Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last through the TAF period at all
TAF sites. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to
continue through the period. A few low-level clouds are possible
with the onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Today through Monday...Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly
under 2.5 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC.
Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along
the Lower Texas Coast courtesy of high pressure over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory are not likely to be needed.

Monday night through Saturday...Surface high pressure looks to
remain in place across the Northern Gulf through the period. This
will continue to support light to moderate winds and slight seas
through the period. A slight chance of rain returns towards the
end of the week as a cold front looks to stall over Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  78  94  80 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               94  75  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 96  77  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  77  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  88  82 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  77  92  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...64-Katz